Experts explained what to do if you urgently need dollars and euros
After the US Treasury imposed sanctions against the Moscow Exchange, the National Clearing Center (NCC) and the National Settlement Depository (NSD), price tags for Currency exchange in banks went up. On the morning of June 13, one could come across an offer to sell dollars at 140 rubles, while the purchase at the same bank was set at 40 rubles. The reason for such a strong discrepancy could be both the bank’s desire to earn extra money and the desire to avoid panic at the exchange office through the introduction of a “protective” rate. MK found out from experts what to do for Russians who urgently need currency, or those who have accounts in dollars and euros.
The sanctions imposed by the Americans against the Moscow Exchange, NCC and NSD, which were discussed back in 2022, will change the mechanism for calculating the dollar and euro exchange rates and the method of currency trading. According to the head of the directorate for working with shares of Alfa Capital Management Company Eduard Kharin, the influx of foreign currency into the country continues, so the ruble exchange rate will be determined by the relationship between supply and demand. And although the value of the dollar and euro may increase in the moment, due to new restrictions it will become more difficult to withdraw the currency, which will reduce the demand for it. “Let’s remember 2022: the ruble first fell significantly in price due to panic in the market, but then began to strengthen,” the expert gave an analogy. “We are seeing an increase in the difference between the purchase and sale of currency in banks, but this always happens in moments of cash shocks.”
According to the regulations of 2022, based on over-the-counter transactions of banks, the official dollar exchange rate will be determined by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. “While for banks and other companies trading is finally moving to the over-the-counter market, for individuals everything returns to the “zero”, when the main currency turnover occurs in banks,” Kharin explained. Another savings tool has been closed for Russians. Professional investors have once again become convinced that currency is a toxic instrument, so an increase in demand for instruments in rubles is possible.
“We expect the euro and dollar exchange rates to strengthen next week against the backdrop of panicky demand for currency,” BCS Forex analyst Anatoly Trifonov shares his forecast. “Our estimates of the over-the-counter market show the current strengthening to 95.5 rubles per dollar, but we do not exclude a slight correction in the rate next week as panic demand declines.” Now is an extremely inappropriate time for foreign exchange transactions: it is wiser to let the market “settle down” within a week or two. Most likely, the competition of banks for clients will lead to a slight decrease in spreads (the difference between the purchase and sale of currency — “MK”), and the demand for currency will also decrease.
It must be admitted that the timing for imposing sanctions on the sale of foreign currency by the Americans was chosen ideally. Not only is Russia Day celebrated on June 12, but usually in the first month of summer, citizens try to plan their vacations in such a way as to “capture” weekends as well. Consumer behavior can seriously affect the exchange rates of toxic currencies. According to financial expert Alexey Krichevsky, if someone needs currency right now, they will have to go and buy it at the price set by the banks. If this process waits at least a few days, then it is better to wait it out, because panic buying will now sweep away a lot of cash, as it happened in all the first days of the crises — in February 2022, March 2020 and December 2014. There are no fundamental reasons for panic, and it is simply physically impossible to build a scheme with foreign accounts and cards in a couple of days. Therefore, the ideal scenario is to simply wait out the storm or borrow currency from friends and acquaintances, promising to give it back in foreign currency after some time, if it is urgently needed.
Another option for travelers abroad, according to a financial analyst BitRiver Vladislav Antonov, there may be a conversion of rubles into alternative currencies that are not subject to sanctions.
As for citizens who have accounts in dollars and euros, this situation will have practically no effect on them, since They themselves did not trade on the Moscow Exchange. For foreign currency deposits opened after March 9, 2022, money can only be withdrawn in rubles, but this is due to restrictions that the Bank of Russia introduced back in March 2022 and has extended several times since then. This has nothing to do with the latest sanctions against Moscow Exchange.