Economist Maslennikov: “The banking sector is at a crossroads”
A largely paradoxical situation has developed in the domestic banking market: with the current Central Bank key rate of 16%, large banks have increased rates on retail deposits up to 18-20%. Experts agree: credit institutions took into account the regulator’s attitude towards further tightening of monetary policy and decided, as they say, to lay down straws so as not to end up as losers. They provide the most favorable interest rates mainly for short periods — 6-9 months.
As the founder of the “Credcheck” service reminds: Elman Mehdiyev, in Russia, inflation expectations have been increasing for the second month in a row; in June they amounted to 11.9%. This circumstance, coupled with the regulator’s rhetoric, pushed banks to take their current proactive steps. According to Mehdiyev, rates on retail deposits will go up for some time under the influence of competition, which will affect the dynamics of bank loans, which will also grow. But since loan rates cannot rise indefinitely, the main factor in the growth of interest rates on deposits will be inflation expectations.
“Today, banks are at a crossroads,” says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. “They need to adapt to changing, very difficult market conditions, and build a new strategy. They expect the Central Bank to raise the rate to 17-18%, which will ultimately force them to raise interest rates on loans, and this, in turn, will lead to an increase in the risks of non-payments and delinquencies. An aggravating factor is the situation with preferential mortgages: a significant drop in the volume of mortgage loans issued with state participation is expected by the end of the year.”
One can also recall various kinds of regulatory tightening on the part of the Central Bank, related, in particular, to the maximum debt load ratios (MLR) of borrowers. Banks understand that in order to be able to increase loan rates, they need to have an appropriate deposit base. Which, given the current high inflation, can only be achieved by increasing rates on retail deposits. This is what banks are doing now. In addition, the interlocutor of MK argues, this is also work for the future, to reduce inflation. Why is there an obvious benefit — both for banks, and for the Central Bank, and for the state as a whole. Saving behavior of the population is stimulated, people spend less money on current expenses, consumption is less dependent on loans due to their high cost, banks have additional money secured by a deposit base.
“Since deposit rates were raised primarily by large state-owned banks, this obviously could not have happened without consultations with the regulator,” Maslennikov believes. – This is to the advantage of the Central Bank, since it reduces the pressure of consumer demand and brings the point of inflation reversal closer. We are talking about a compromise of interests: banks strive to minimize credit risks (today the share of overdue mortgage loans is 13%), to insure themselves, to adjust their business strategy, and the Bank of Russia, in turn, is interested in stimulating the savings and deposit activity of the population and reducing inflation.” .
Financial analyst Sergei Drozdov, for his part, connects what is happening with a purely technical issue. Namely – with the abolition by the Central Bank from May 1 of the commission on transfers by bank clients to themselves of large sums — up to 30 million rubles per month from one bank to another through the fast payment system (SBP). Accordingly, credit institutions will now have to try hard to keep depositors from transferring money to places where conditions are more attractive.