Economist Krichevsky: “You need to approach the yuan carefully”
The Russian currency is confidently strengthening. After the next package of US sanctions, which included restrictions on the Moscow Exchange, the national currency began to grow. The yuan exchange rate dropped below 11 rubles, breaking through the minimum values for the year. As for the US dollar, as of June 21, the Bank of Russia set the official exchange rate at 85.42 rubles, and the euro at 91.45 rubles. Why did the “wooden” one strengthen so sharply and what will happen next? Experts told MK about this: economist, financial advisor, author of the educational project “Economism” Alexey Krichevsky and founder of the “Kredcheck” service Elman Mehdiyev.
: — It's simple. At first, after the sanctions, there was a lot of hype in the media about problems with currency and conversion due to the fact that the Moscow Exchange and the National Clearing Center (NCC, part of the Moscow Exchange Group) are now on the SDN list. In fact, there is nothing like that — the currency was still mostly purchased on the interbank market, and the share of these transactions was higher than exchange transactions. That is why such a collapse occurred, seasoned with the expiration of futures and the speculative interest of the largest players in the market, along with the desire to buy currency cheaper, knocking a dozen rubles off the dollar. The result is already visible today — the dollar is already worth 87 rubles, with a minimum of 80.6 yesterday.
: — The decrease in demand for currency reflects the structure of foreign trade transactions — less import «at the moment» means less demand for currency, and therefore a «stronger» rate. And if import volumes grow, the rate will go in the opposite direction. Volatility always exists and will exist, but whether it is a trend — time will tell.
: — Theoretically, the dollar can return to 80 rubles again, but for this to happen, there must be really big problems with imports and the need for currency. So far, this is not observed — moreover, Chinese banks are increasingly starting to accept money from Russia. Yes, these are small banks from the north of China, but the fact that the window is expanding is important. Therefore, the possibilities for the dollar to fall against the ruble now look very modest — this is only beneficial to those who need to buy currency and speculators. The budget is definitely not interested in this, unless oil suddenly jumps to $100 per barrel of Brent. Movements in the ruble towards strengthening are possible until the end of June and in the week after the Central Bank's rate announcement — a sharp increase in it, in theory, can also contribute to strengthening the currency.
: — The Bank of Russia warned about the possibility of further tightening of monetary policy, and hence an increase in the key rate. Credit institutions, reacting to such statements and monitoring the indices that the Central Bank talks about, act “proactively.” The increase in interest rates on loans and deposits is a direct consequence of the Central Bank's rhetoric.
: — Buying currency as a means of protecting against devaluation will never be superfluous, but you need to approach the yuan carefully — there are rumors that the Chinese Communist Party is preparing to devalue the currency to increase exports, since the purchasing power of both Russia and the EU is declining. A good long-term investment option is precious metal bars, and silver is relatively inexpensive, as are small gold bars. As for deposits, it’s worth waiting until July and seeing what happens to rates after the Central Bank meeting. A few weeks of weather won't do anything anyway. If you can’t wait to invest somewhere, bonds of large companies are a very good option. Some of them provide a floating income linked to the Central Bank rate, for example, “key” + 3-4%. The advantage is liquidity, since bonds can be sold and money withdrawn from the brokerage account without losing accumulated returns. So there are plenty of options — you can even put together a small portfolio of currency, deposits, bonds and precious metals. Yes, the yield over the horizon of a year or two may be small, but gold and silver are the assets in which most central banks of the world invest — it is unlikely that they are all wrong.
: — A high key rate is the key to a high interest rate on deposits. And a high deposit rate is the right time to place excess funds for 3-6 months. But you need to take out loans when it is really necessary, and not when the rate suits you. But this principle only works in cases where the purposes for which loans are needed are not just desirable, but vitally important. Regarding currency, keeping savings in foreign currency is always risky given the changes that occur and are often unexpected. And even if savings have long been in foreign currency, you should not forget about inflation, which is inherent in currency too… Temporary strengthening can also be replaced by temporary weakening — you need to decide based on what you need your savings for and where you will spend them. Firstly, a currency cannot serve as a “safe haven” from the risks of depreciation, if we are talking about insignificant amounts and the lack of professional work in this market. Secondly, currency as a savings is only needed if in the medium or long term we are talking about spending in foreign currency.