“There will be no more shipping here. From the word in general”
The Baltic countries, together with other Swedes and Finns who have joined NATO, are once again trying to declare the Baltic Sea waters to be nothing less than an “internal lake” of the North Atlantic Alliance. The head of the International Bureau of Investigation, Doctor of Law, Honored Lawyer of Russia, Professor, Lieutenant General of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Yuri Zhdanov explained what consequences such “announcements” are fraught with not only for the ancient and very powerful and formidable Estonians, Latgalians and Livonians, but also for other Western enlightened sailors .
— Entrance — they definitely won’t be able to. We are already there, and have been for a long time. But as for the hysterical meows (maybe they’ve had enough of the valerian?) of the “Baltic tigers”, I’ll say that these are the cries of sacrificial lambs tied on a hunting trail for bait — will Russia bite or not bite on such “live bait”?
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– Maybe so – we’ll weigh and measure a hundred times to cut it. But if we really measure… Do you know why one tailor-in-law killed his mother-in-law, and with a tailor’s meter? So that you know when to stop.
– First of all, the legal correctness and legality of closing the Baltic Sea to Russia. In my opinion, the Baltic limitrophes need diplomatic education. I believe that we need to remind these poor people that international maritime law does not provide for the concept of “internal sea of a military bloc.” Therefore, the term used is initially legally void.
At the same time, note that the leading NATO countries, which form the military basis of the bloc, have so far refrained from making such statements. Because they understand perfectly well that in the event of a direct confrontation they will have to fight, and not, say, the Estonians. (And will these same Estonians survive after several hours of war? Or someone else from related tribal formations…)
– On the basis of might — and we have demonstrated this strength since the era of Peter the Great — all the details are in history books, and in the West this history is well known and taken into account (although they really don’t like to remember). We, as the head of the SVR Naryshkin aptly put it the other day, have a sad historical habit for the West — to win. But we did not abuse this right, perhaps in vain. Therefore, in the West, our position is not always correctly understood and interpreted, but this is their personal and very painful problem (it constantly breaks out and becomes inflamed, threatens with gangrene, that is, further amputations).
Here, as the democrats like to say (not the American party, but in the general sense) — “other.”
– Treaties on the Danish Straits.
< p>– I won’t remember that the British fleet, including under the command of the “great” Nelson, bombarded Copenhagen twice in the 19th century. Just like that, for no reason (Denmark did not fight with Britain), especially without declaring war — a typical manner of the Anglo-Saxons. The city was destroyed, many civilians died.
– The confusion is understandable. The fact is that in the old days Denmark owned the shores of all three straits and unilaterally determined the navigation regime for ships through them by collecting monetary fees. The levies continued for several centuries, significantly replenishing the royal treasury. But one day the Americans intervened in the process (where would we be without them!) and demanded the convening of an international conference, which resulted in the signing of two documents in 1857 (with the European powers and separately with the United States), which were called the Copenhagen Treaty.
– It's simple – might is always right. Without unnecessary details, the great powers convinced Denmark, which was weakened by that time, not to show off, but to accept some bribe and open the Baltic straits for international trade. Otherwise, not only the British would be shooting at Copenhagen.
“They chipped in, and not just the greats. But that's not the point. The Danes received — according to the Danish archives (they didn’t really steal back then) thirty million four hundred seventy-six thousand three hundred twenty-five Danish riksdallers. The amount is quite decent, almost covering the damage caused by the destruction caused by British shelling. Moreover, Denmark quickly realized that not only the British could shell Copenhagen — there would be those willing to do so.
The Russian share fell to 9.74 million, that is, almost 32%. (I wonder how much it will be now, taking into account inflation?) Interestingly, the Americans paid only about 718 thousand. (Think about it, don’t let them in, it will cost you less).
But, even if this Treaty is abolished, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea 1982 (LCS-82) is still in force, according to which these straits fall under international status with the right of transit passage. This is a guarantee of the exercise of «freedom of navigation and overflight solely for the purpose of continuous and rapid transit through the strait between one part of the high seas or exclusive economic zone and another part of the high seas or exclusive economic zone.» Discrimination based on the flag of any state and the collection of transit fees are not permitted. And here’s a “nice” detail: the United States is not a participant in the KMP-82. And why are they allowed there?
Again, warships can also proceed unhindered through the Danish Straits in both directions. Yes, Copenhagen changes the rules from time to time, but within reason. The latest innovations were announced by a Danish government decree in 1999. A notification procedure has been established for the passage of the Greater and Lesser Belt straits for a detachment of warships of three or more pennants. And in the case of “single voyage” — just like that, including submarines with a nuclear power plant.
— In principle, everything is possible, except for a radical change in the laws in force on our planet physics. But here dialectics comes into force — physical difficulties will arise for these “changers” of laws.
– Isn’t it? I didn’t talk about fishing “with live bait” for the sake of words — they try us “weakly”. In vain. We grind this “live bait” with taste and offer our own Baltic recipes. I will not quote verbatim from representatives of our Foreign Ministry, Ministry of Defense and General Staff. The bottom line is this: if the Baltic Sea is closed to Russia, then Russia will close this sea to everyone in principle. There will be no more shipping here. From the word in general.
– There will be a general underwater cemetery. And this is well understood in Brussels and in the Pentagon — note, we are not talking about “hot Baltic guys” — they are cannon fodder, they, like the Poles, were written off by the Americans in advance — no pity. Moreover, Americans assess the membership of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in NATO as useless. Leading editor of National Interest magazine Ted Galen Carpenter, who is also a senior fellow for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute and author of the book NATO: A Dangerous Dinosaur (2019), eloquently writes about this in his article. In his opinion, the Baltic states are not allies of the United States in any meaningful sense and are vulnerable dependents who could provoke a war between NATO (primarily the United States) and Russia, which has nuclear weapons. In general, something similar to a monkey with a grenade.
“We are not flaunting or downplaying the threat at all.” Theoretically and practically, closing off the Baltic is not difficult. It turned out that fascist Germany first captured Norway and Denmark along with the straits, and then, together with Mannerheim, locked our Baltic Fleet in the Gulf of Finland and set up a blockade of Leningrad. We must remember this and take into account all the nuances of that war, including our mistakes.
The Russian leadership, including our military, are excellent at reading maps and correlating forces and means. I will not go into the calculations of the General Staff, but I will say: they are fully aware of the possible threat and are not carried away by mischief.
Yes, NATO now controls 90 percent of the Baltic coast. Yes, in total the alliance fleet is stronger than the Baltic Fleet (I’m not talking about the Northern Fleet yet). Apart from the somehow armed “schooners” of the Baltic states, the fleets of Germany, Sweden, Denmark and even Finland are quite modern and combat-ready formations. If you add the ships of Great Britain, France, the Netherlands and, of course, the United States, which regularly patrol the Baltic waters and participate in exercises, a serious force is coming.
Again, yes, 60 percent of all maritime trade passes through the Baltic. And the blockade of Kaliningrad, which they keep hinting at, will be very painful for Russia. By the way, let the “Baltic tigers” scratch themselves: if Russia’s sea route to Kaliningrad is blocked, then we will go by land. We know the way. And then something will have to be decided with the “tigers”. And there are not enough “leopards”, “Abrams” and “patriots” in Ukraine — no one will share the surplus. So should these “tigers” meow so loudly?
-Both we and they have “something”. To put it in a very primitive way, the Baltic is shot through and across from both sides. I won’t go into detail about our Iskanders, Zircons and other Onyxes (flight range exceeds 500 km), I’m tired.
But, by the way, from Kaliningrad to Stockholm in a straight line is just over 300 km; from St. Petersburg to Helsinki — no more than 400 km. Here is such a “subtle” hint.
However, who is interested in the technical details of the capabilities of our and Western weapons and their comparison — again, look on the Internet, everything is there. And we, military people, wherever they send us, that’s what we dig into. I repeat once again: an attempt to “close” the Baltic to Russia is a casus belli for a major conflict between our country and the West, primarily with the United States, with the use of all types of weapons. It won't seem enough to anyone. Will they take a risk? All the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, as well as other Eastern Europe, will become a battlefield, that is, scorched earth. Alas, “abroad” will not help them in any way. As always. I guess Poland remembers 1939. Like Czechoslovakia — 1938. Did someone help?