“The growth of wages in the country and increased payments by wealthy Russians are to blame”
According to the Federal Tax Service, 57 billion rubles came into the federal budget from the so-called tax on the rich in the period January-May. This is 1.5 times more than in the same period last year.
The prospects for income tax collection are impressive. By the end of this year, the treasury should receive 176 billion rubles.
Photo: freepik.com
Currently in Russia, we would like to remind you that there is a two-stage personal income tax scale: 13% and 15%. An increased percentage is paid by those who earn more than 5 million rubles per year (417 thousand per month).
According to the law, “above plan” 2% is transferred to the federal budget. These funds are targeted for the treatment of rare diseases in children. And the traditional income tax of 13% remains in the regions.
It is expected that in 2024 the federal budget will receive 176 billion rubles from this same 2%. Then it will go progressively: in 2025 – 189 billion, and in 2026 – already 204 billion. In total, over the 3-year period, this item alone will replenish the treasury by 570 billion rubles.
Apparently, the optimistic forecasts for the 3-year period, which news agencies are now full of, will be greatly adjusted.
< p>After all, starting in 2025, a progressive, multi-stage tax scale will come into force. If today it is two-stage, then from January 2025 it will be five-stage. Starting from a salary of more than 2.4 million rubles a year — 15%, then from 5 million — 18%, over 20 million — 20%. And finally, those super-rich who earn more than 50 million a year will give 22% to the treasury.
Thus, tax revenue will increase several times. Deputy Finance Minister of the Russian Federation Alexey Sazanov previously stated that the number of personal income tax payers is not decreasing due to the transition to a progressive scale.
In a word, this year’s plan for collections will be fulfilled and exceeded, there is no doubt about that. Where does such confidence come from?
There is one nuance to the increased income tax that perhaps not everyone is aware of. In any case, those who do not receive a salary of 417 thousand rubles a month. While the payer’s income does not reach 5 million rubles per year, he contributes 13% to the budget. And only after the amount exceeds 5 million, he pays 2% more. It is clear that such an amount is accumulated by an individual individual only at the end of the year.
However, the peculiarity of this year is that the number of Russians who have already overcome the five million barrier has increased. And now, until the end of the year, they will begin to contribute 15%.
We cannot discount the growth in household incomes. In the first quarter of 2024 alone, real wages in the country increased by 11%.
But what will happen in the coming year? Are there risks of non-payment of taxes?
Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences Igor Nikolaev believes that such risks in 2025-2026 are minimal.
– From the point of view of tax administration, the situation now is much better than it was 20-30 years ago, – he explains. – But it’s difficult to say what will happen next. The problem is that not a very large number of our fellow citizens will overcome the first threshold of 2.4 million rubles per year, and they can be controlled. But if today’s rate of salary growth continues, then the average salary of 2.4 million rubles can be achieved in 4-7 years. Nominal wages in the country grew significantly in both 2022 and 2023. In this she will grow even more. And many will end up with a salary that is already subject to progression. Consequently, over time, problems with collection may arise. Apparently, it is necessary to provide for indexation of threshold payments so that progressive taxes do not affect the well-being of the majority of our fellow citizens.