However, such a collapse will only affect Russia as a rebound
“The US national debt poses risks to the global economy,” this is not the opinion of some Russian political scientist, expressed in the heat of an ideological discussion. So says the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva. She calls on the United States government to address the growing national debt and budget deficit now, while the economy has the opportunity to do so.
The head of the IMF said that if current trends do not change, by 2032 the ratio of US debt to the country's gross domestic product will reach a record 140%. And such high indicators pose great risks not only for the American, but also for the world economy.
Currently, the US national debt in relation to its GDP is at 120.7%. And the budget deficit in 2024 could be $1.9 trillion (7% of GDP), up from a February estimate of $1.5 trillion. According to American data, the country's national debt exceeds $34 trillion, while the entire American economy (US GDP) is just over $27 trillion, occupying, by the way, first place on the planet for many decades.
Generally speaking, huge American debts, which could collapse the world economy, are one of the favorite accusatory and revealing topics in the mouths of Russian politicians and public figures, who have been waiting for the “inevitable collapse of the dollar” for decades. And this is quite understandable; our countries are going through far from the best times in their contacts.
But the statement came from a completely different “camp” — the International Monetary Fund, in whose actions it is difficult to suspect any political bias towards Washington. Everything is as it is: the global financial market is threatened by accumulated American debts. If one day the financial pyramid of this colossal debt collapses, it will not seem like much to many countries.
But how likely is such a danger? We asked Candidate of Economic Sciences, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev about this.
“The budget deficit in the United States is constantly growing,” he says. – To close it, the United States issues debt. It does not print dollars, as some economists believe, but debt securities with different maturities, different amounts and interest. Many countries around the world buy them. In this way, Americans cover the budget deficit, but increase their debts.
– The real danger is that budget deficits and debt obligations are “inscribed” into America’s economic mechanism. He can no longer work any other way. However, extrapolating today's government debt data to 2032 is not entirely accurate. Theoretically, the IMF is right, but for now this threat can be considered as a warning.
– They need to build up their gold and foreign exchange reserves by investing in reliable securities. Despite all the “buts,” American securities remain the most reliable in the world. Everyone else is even worse. The US economy dominates on a global scale – you may not like it, but it’s a fact.
– Let’s say that some obligations come due – they are paid from subsequent debts taken out. Which looks like a financial pyramid. But for now, the US economy allows us to service such operations. Of course, hypothetically, such a pyramid could collapse someday. But I don’t think that by 2032…
– We didn’t refuse, we minimized, practically eliminated our debt obligations. In this regard, we are, as it were, isolated from American financial influence. But not completely. If other countries, our counterparties who hold packages of American debt securities, suffer, then indirectly, with a ricochet, it could hit Russia.