Fluctuations reach 2-4 rubles a day in one direction or another
Rates of toxic currencies have collapsed against the ruble. According to the exchange rate set by the Central Bank on June 28, the “American” unexpectedly dropped by 2.84 rubles, to 84.96. And the euro exchange rate fell even lower — by 3.12 rubles, to a value of 90.98. If in one day the dollar can add or lose 2-3 rubles, then what can happen to our national currency in a month — specifically, in July? MK interviewed experts.
The currency sanctions imposed on Russia in mid-June, although they led to a ban on trading dollars and euros on the Moscow Exchange, are not leaving the country's economy. As before, analysts are interested in the ruble exchange rate against the «American» and «European».
Only this rate is calculated using a different principle — over-the-counter. What will the ruble please or surprise us with in the coming month? There are only three days left. And the intrigue is only growing.
Contrary to all expectations, the ruble, like a week ago, strengthened again. Although, according to many experts, a strong national currency is not beneficial to our Cabinet — it is more difficult to fill the deficit budget. Recently, the government even “loosened the screws” on the sale of foreign exchange earnings by exporters. We were allowed to leave not 20% of foreign currency earnings in our accounts, as before, but 40%.
All so that the ruble stabilizes again and is in the corridor that formed over the first six months of the year. And to which both enterprises and citizens themselves have become accustomed.
In addition, now the Bank of Russia sets the official exchange rates of the dollar and euro to the Russian ruble based on the reports of credit institutions and the results of concluded interbank conversion transactions. That is, to some extent, this rate is “drawn” manually. And you can set one that is beneficial to the country's economy. And now, after all these operations, the ruble, which should have been steadily weakening, took and brought down toxic currencies. It would seem that it is high time to run and buy dollars, if you have such an urgent need. However, not everything is so simple.
Financial analyst Sergei Drozdov does not undertake to predict the July ruble exchange rate today. According to him, it is too early to talk about this, there is strong volatility on the market — daily fluctuations in the rate can be 2-4 rubles in one direction or another.
“After such jumps, the foreign exchange market does not calm down quickly,” he believes. – I think by the end of next week the situation will become more clear and predictable. Now the ruble is officially strengthening, but according to the Central Bank exchange rate, you can’t buy a dollar or euro in banks; they sell it there for much more, at 89-90 rubles.
BitRiver Communications Director, economist Andrei Loboda expects that in early July the ruble may expect weakening after rapid growth in June.
“And traditionally, the ruble becomes cheaper at the end of the tax period,” he says. — At the beginning of the month, the Ministry of Finance will announce purchases of currency (yuan) on the exchange for the National Welfare Fund, but these actual interventions will also affect the dollar, since the yuan is purchased based on the cross rate. In July, the volume of purchases from the National Welfare Fund may increase as oil prices remained high. This means that the demand for currency will be higher than in June. In the second half of July, the ruble will be affected, as usual, by the tax period, as well as the decision on the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. It is possible that on July 26 it will be increased by 2 points at once, to 18% per annum. This could lead to a sharp strengthening of the ruble, up to 86 per dollar. In the last days of the month, the “American” may rise slightly again in anticipation of the announcement of the Fed’s decision on interest rates, since the American regulator most likely will not reduce interest rates until the end of the year. We expect the dollar to be within the range of 85-92 rubles in July.
“On the currency section, the ruble resumed its offensive yesterday on all currency fronts,” says Oleg Kalmanovich, chief analyst at Neomarkets. — Thus, dollar quotes dropped by 1.01% to 86.92 rubles, and the Chinese yuan fell by 1.53% to 11.71 rubles. The main trigger for the current strengthening of the ruble is the approaching period of tax payments. Its peak will be on June 28, and by this day, exporters must have time to sell foreign currency earnings in order to receive rubles to pay taxes. If we talk about future prospects, now the key level of the purchase-sale section is the mark of 88.8 rubles per dollar — as long as the price is lower, there is a good opportunity to close the targets below at the levels of 84.5 rubles and 80 rubles.