“Dancing with tambourines is over”
The popular preferential mortgage program, which in recent years has become the main driver of demand for new buildings, has come to an end. Where will prices for “squares” go in the primary and secondary housing markets after July 1? What special promotions from developers and new types of preferential housing loans may appear in the near future? About this live at the MK conference “Looking for a new favorite: who will replace the preferential mortgage?” representatives of large construction companies, banks and independent analysts spoke.
According to Tatyana Boeva, head of the mortgage lending department of Granel Group of Companies, in June in the sales structure the total share of preferential and family mortgages reached 80%. According to her, developers prepared in advance for a possible decline in sales. In particular, to maintain demand, special promotions and discounts have been developed, and joint collaborations with banks are being prepared. This is especially true for the increasingly popular tranche mortgage (before the house is put into operation, interest is accrued only on the first tranche, and not on the entire loan amount. -) and banking programs, when funds are transferred to the escrow account not at the time of registration of the mortgage, but the day before delivery the house is put into operation, which allows the bank to provide the borrower with a discount. In addition, a number of large construction companies, incl. and Granel are ready to partially subsidize mortgage rates up to 8% instead of the state for short periods (up to 1 year) and for 5 years, or provide installment plans for buyers of new apartments.
“Starting July 1, the volume of mortgage loans issued will decrease,” noted Alexandra Obolenskaya, deputy director of the department of the regional network Rosbank Dom. But bankers remain optimistic, since it is already clear that the decision has been made to maintain the Far Eastern, Arctic and family mortgages. The latter, in her opinion, in its updated form has excellent chances of becoming the new favorite of the mortgage market. Part of the demand in the segment of new buildings, according to Obolenskaya, may move to the individual housing construction market, where the cost of 1 sq. m. m of housing is significantly cheaper. In the suburban housing market, family mortgages are also popular.
The head of the AC “Real Estate Market Indicators IRN.RU” Oleg Repchenko believes that “dancing with tambourines” is over. But after July 1, in his opinion, influential lobbyists in the construction industry will most likely come up with new programs. For example, for young people, teachers or doctors. He believes that preferential mortgages have hooked the construction market on a “hard drug”, without which it will be difficult for both developers and bankers: “Is the market healthy when it is “sitting on a preferential needle”, when 80-90% of home purchase transactions take place solely thanks to preferential programs?
According to an independent analyst, preferential mortgages did not achieve the main goal — they did not make housing more affordable for ordinary citizens. Thanks to a generous rain of untargeted subsidies, average prices for new buildings have doubled over the past three years. This is several times higher than the official inflation of Rosstat.
In addition to soaring prices, the completed program distorted the supply structure. If earlier, starting from Soviet times, developers designed residential complexes with 1/3 “one-room apartments”, 1/3 “two-room apartments” and 1/3 “three-room apartments” and multi-room apartments, but now more than half of the supply is studios and “one-room apartments”. And taking into account the so-called “euro-two-room apartments”, which are “one-room apartments” with a large kitchen, this share has grown to 70%. “In fact, people buy hotel rooms that are not suitable for family living,” the expert emphasized. — Many large projects consist of 10-12 buildings of 45 floors. On each floor there are not 4 or 6 apartments, as in Soviet houses, but entire corridors with studios and one-room apartments. It seems to me that we are building ghetto hostels, not housing for young families.”
In his opinion, the preferential program has also distorted the structure of demand: new apartments are not bought by those who really need them, but often by private investors “who want to monetize freebies from the state.”
“The main problem of the housing market is inadequately inflated prices,” Repchenko said. According to him, the cost of construction is negatively affected by a number of factors. The main problem is a completely opaque land market. Russia has a huge territory, but developers are often forced to buy sites in cities at exorbitant prices from various characters who became owners of the sites in the dashing 90s and not in the most legal way.
Secondly, the cost is put under pressure by the ever-increasing price of connection to the utility networks of natural monopolies. The third problem is the shortage of inexpensive but high-quality building materials. Although concrete, metal, brick, stone, sand are produced or mined within the country. Another sore point is the labor shortage. “The first three problems can be solved if the state has the political will. Then developers will be able to reduce costs and housing prices,” the analyst is confident.
According to Tatyana Boeva, after July 1, when the preferential mortgage ends, you should not expect a reduction in prices for new buildings. There are no objective prerequisites for this in the primary market. Alexandra Obolenskaya agrees with this conclusion.
Repchenko also shares the forecast. But only on a short horizon. He believes that during the period of the preferential programs, developers sold significant volumes and created a good foundation for the future. Therefore, they do not have an urgent need to organize sales now. But at the end of the year, when sales volumes fall, some construction companies may start a discount season to stimulate demand. True, not for the entire volume of supply, but for less liquid apartments. Most likely, special promotions will also return, when the developer does not reduce prices for new buildings, but offers the buyer a storage room, a parking space in an underground parking lot, or renovations in an apartment as a gift.
In the long term, the expert believes, much will depend on the monetary policy of the Central Bank. If its key rate remains at a high level for several years in a row, then structural changes will occur in the housing market. First, the trend towards lower prices will be felt by participants in the secondary market. Typically, during the “collapse” of the price bubble, the secondary market becomes cheaper by 1% per month. Homeowners' rental income will decline, while the attractiveness of ruble deposits, on the contrary, will increase. Therefore, some homeowners will become wealthy investors.
Then the negative trend will “migrate” to the primary market. “As in the crisis of 2008-2009, many developers of new buildings will be faced with the question of either coming under the control of banks or making a “mini-explosion.” As, for example, Vedis Group did this in 2009, halving prices for a large metropolitan microdistrict in Marfino (with an average market price of about 110 thousand rubles per 1 sq. m. the developer immediately sold out apartments at a price of 68 thousand rubles . for 1 “square”. “I'm not saying this scenario will definitely happen, but it is possible. Especially if the key rate of the Central Bank remains at a high level for a long time,” concluded Repchenko.