Economist Maslennikov: “This segment of the lending market is more overheated than any other”
The Central Bank decided to put an end to the uncontrolled growth of the car lending market. From July 1, for the first time, the same restrictions that were previously established by the regulator for the consumer and mortgage lending segments will apply to its participants. We are talking about increased macroprudential premiums for borrowers with a debt burden ratio (DLI) above 50%. In other words, this lending sector will no longer be able to live its own internal life, not accountable to anyone.
The Central Bank itself explains the tightening of requirements, firstly, by the weakening of lending standards by banks, and secondly, by the fact that as of April 1, this market segment grew by 53% in annual terms. According to the regulator, in the first quarter of 2024, 61% of car loans were provided to borrowers who pay more than half of their monthly income to service existing loans. A year earlier, the share of such issuances was 50%, and in January 2022 — 44%.
According to the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI), in January-March of this year, banks issued loans to the population for the purchase of a car in the amount of 508.5 billion rubles, or 130.9% more than in the first quarter of last year (220.4 billion) . This is a record figure for the entire period of observation, as well as — quantity: 353 thousand units, which is 99.2% more than the same period in 2023 (177.2 thousand units). As of March 1, the total debt of Russians on car loans amounted to 1.82 trillion rubles. The average loan size for the country as a whole — 1.2 million, in Moscow it is close to 2 million rubles.
“The motives behind the Central Bank's decision are clear: today the car loan market is overheated more than any other,” says leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies, economist Nikita Maslennikov. “It was impossible not to do what the regulator did. The high gap between consumer demand for cars and supply from the domestic auto industry increases inflationary pressure; our annual inflation is now 8.46%. The cost of production will certainly continue to rise, since in May, for example, the production of passenger cars in Russia fell by 96.7% year-on-year. However, thanks to the measure taken by the state, some cooling of demand will probably begin in September-October.”Today there is a paradoxical situation in the market: banks give car loans at rates below 10% per annum, with the Central Bank key rate of 16%, notes an expert of the financial marketplace Compare. Alexey Lossan. According to him, car dealers are actually offering hidden discounts on their models. Obviously, this practice, like many other processes in the market, stimulates inflation. The Central Bank has repeatedly pointed out this problem, which is why it canceled preferential mortgages and is now limiting the availability of car loans. At the same time, Laussan argues, the regulator acts carefully, setting increased premiums only for borrowers with a personal income tax above 50%. This allows him to fine-tune the lending market and achieve a reduction in inflation growth, which in the future may lead to a reduction in the key rate.
“No one can avoid increasing premiums on risk coefficients,” says Natalya Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Gold. — If at the beginning of the year such standards applied only to borrowers for mortgages and consumer loans, now they will apply to those wishing to take out a car loan. With high interest rates, demand will likely begin to fall. There are preferential programs for car loans, but they are designed to support only the Russian automobile industry: if you want to take out a new foreign car, and you don’t have enough money to buy it, then you’ll have to come to terms with the existing status quo. Now, potential borrowers, before applying to a bank for a car loan, will need to check their credit history and make sure that there are no late payments, and that the PTI level does not exceed 50%.»
Population We have been refinanced, and the situation is not getting better; on the contrary, from quarter to quarter the volume of accumulated debts is only growing. Therefore, the Central Bank is acting absolutely logically: the benefits of the measure it has taken will clearly be greater than the potential risks, says BitRiver Communications Director, economist Andrei Loboda. First of all, this is a concern for citizens: we are not talking about curtailing their consumer rights, but about combating the threat of their financial insolvency. It is better to take out a car loan when a person is not burdened with other monthly payments, says the expert.