The popularity of housing exchange transactions has increased
The end of the preferential mortgage program for new buildings has led to significant changes in the secondary housing market near Moscow. Due to increased competition among sellers, the volume of offers has increased. But demand has dropped significantly, as many buyers decided to wait until prices for finished apartments begin to decline. Some of them moved onto the rental market. Where will secondary prices go in this situation?
In mid-summer, several interesting trends are gaining momentum in the Moscow region housing market. As Yulia Dymova, director of the secondary real estate department at Est-a-Tet, told MK, today there is a great demand for properties in satellite cities of the capital. In addition, following Moscow, the trend of purchasing ready-made housing on a “turnkey” basis has come to the Moscow region. “The difference in the price ratio between “without repair” and “with repair” is quite significant. Therefore, it turns out that many objects are a priori not sold in the Moscow region only for the reason that they are unfinished and the exposure period of these objects is quite long. Even a discount does not save the situation when selling these objects,” the expert explained.
According to her, until recently many sellers were giving discounts simply to be able to enter the preferential mortgage program before July 1. Now many of them have taken a break until better times and are not bargaining. Because the bargaining that buyers are offering today is a little inadequate. Against this background, there is an overstocking of the secondary real estate market in the Moscow region. “At the same time, there is an acute shortage of large-format properties. There is a shortage of multi-room apartments both on the rental market and on the sales market,” Dymova noted.
In May and June, due to the cancellation of preferential mortgage programs “for everyone,” activity in the secondary market fell, confirmed the head of Tsian.Analytics, Alexey Popov. However, in the coming months, the situation, in his opinion, will change dramatically: the inaccessibility of mortgages, both in the primary market (for those who are not suitable as a borrower for a family or IT program), and in the secondary market will lead to a redistribution of reduced demand into the segment of finished housing , where the general price level is slightly lower.
“In conditions of high mortgage costs, the popularity of housing exchange transactions has increased,” Rigina Gordeeva, director of the federal company Etazhi Prime in Moscow, told MK. This allows buyers to improve their living conditions without significant additional costs. Often, sellers in this case agree to provide installment plans without the participation of banks. In addition, many potential buyers chose to switch to the rental market, expecting conditions on the housing market to improve. These trends will continue until the economy and mortgage rates become more favorable for buyers. At the same time, demand in the market will be supported by apartments where the owners are interested in urgent sale and are ready to make a significant discount.
According to Gordeeva, studios and one-room apartments are in high demand due to their affordability. Many buyers, especially young couples and singles, prefer these options because they require lower upfront costs and provide lower monthly mortgage payments. “The fastest way to sell compact apartments that have been renovated in a residential complex with good transport accessibility,” Popov noted.
According to him, there is a clear pattern in the Moscow region — the farther a city is from the capital, the lower its prices. Exceptions to this rule arise for science cities (in Protvino and Pushchino apartments are more expensive than in Serpukhov, in Dubna more expensive than in Dmitrov), as well as for cases when settlements differ greatly in population (for example, located a little closer to the capital Khotkovo is cheaper than Sergiev Posad). Among the cities of the Moscow region, the highest average prices per square meter on the secondary market are in Reutov (220 thousand rubles), among all settlements — in the village of Zarechye, Odintsovo district (330 thousand rubles). The lowest prices were recorded in the city of Roshal (63 thousand rubles). In remote villages in the east of the region (Cherusti, Misheronsky, Meshchersky Bor) the price level is even lower — about 50-55 thousand rubles. At the beginning of July, for 1 “square” in the region they are asking 164.9 thousand rubles.
According to Gordeeva, one of the most expensive cities in the Moscow region in terms of prices for secondary housing is Krasnogorsk. This is due to its proximity to Moscow, developed infrastructure and prestige of the area. Khimki is in second place, with high housing prices due to convenient transport links with Moscow and developed infrastructure. The most affordable apartments are sold in the city of Roshal (the average price of an apartment is about 2.62 million rubles) and the city of Ruza (about 5.6 million rubles).
In the Moscow region, as in “old” Moscow, the best price dynamics were shown by high-quality housing “for living” — modern panel (+1.1%) and brick houses (+1.4%), as well as monolithic brick (+0 .8%), which in the region, unlike “old” Moscow, belongs more to the comfort class than to “business,” said Oleg Repchenko, head of the Real Estate Market Indicators AC. According to him, prices for spacious apartments on average also rose above the market — two-room apartments (+0.6%) and three-room apartments (+1.2%).
In terms of geography, the most expensive locations in the Moscow Region were the most distant (+1.7%) and, accordingly, the cheapest locations, as well as those adjacent to the Moscow Ring Road (+0.5%). At the same time, the average Moscow Region went into the minus (-0.1%). The situation is different in New Moscow, where, according to the results of the first half of the year, the most expensive ones were one-room apartments (+1%) in panel houses (+0.2%) — that is, relatively cheap housing. At the same time, the Novomoskovsky District, closest to «old» Moscow, still demonstrates positive price dynamics (+0.1%), with the exception of Kommunarka (-0.8%), where there is high competition among sellers on the secondary market (as well as on the primary one). And the main outsider was the distant and highly overvalued Troitsky District (-1.3%), continuing to widen the gap with Novomoskovsk, which, thanks to the rapid construction of the metro and other infrastructure, is no longer much different from the residential areas inside the Moscow Ring Road.
Despite a significant decline in market turnover due to the unavailability of mortgages, housing prices are essentially marking time. Demand remains only for good apartments at a reasonable price — but they are not becoming more expensive either. At the same time, the overpriced business class is also not getting cheaper.
From above, sky-high mortgage rates are putting pressure on prices (already from 18-20% per annum — MK), but from below they are supported by a lack of supply. Since the beginning of this year, the number of apartments on display in the Moscow region has increased by only about 10%. “Unlike 2022, when, against the background of panic in connection with the SVO and mobilization, many left the country and urgently sold apartments, now homeowners are behaving very carefully. Realizing that it will not be possible to sell housing at a high price at the current level of rates, they take it off the market and rent it out,” says Repchenko. In my opinion, most likely, this situation will continue in the coming months — the market will exist with low demand, but relatively stable prices in advertisements. At the same time, the size of the auction “for a specific buyer” will increase.
Until the end of 2024, prices for finished apartments in the Moscow region will be influenced by several external and internal factors, experts are sure. Macroeconomic stability, inflation and income levels will be key. Much will also depend on the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which affects mortgage rates and, accordingly, the availability of loans for buyers.
“With increasing supply and decreasing demand, sellers may be forced to provide discounts and reduce prices. The cancellation or adjustment of preferential mortgage programs for new buildings will help increase demand for secondary housing, which can support prices in this market segment,” Gordeeva believes. At the same time, according to her assessment, in areas with active infrastructure development and high demand, such as Krasnogorsk and Khimki, prices may remain unchanged or even slightly increase due to limited supply and high demand. Prices for luxury and expensive housing may remain stable or increase due to limited supply and stable demand in this segment. At the same time, in more affordable segments of the market, especially in the far Moscow region, a more noticeable reduction in prices is possible.
“Over the past seven months, nominal supply prices have remained almost unchanged. Fluctuations occur in a very narrow range (163-165 thousand rubles),” Popov noted. He expects that the decline in demand in the new buildings market in the coming weeks will create a corresponding information background, which will be “imposed” on the secondary housing market. In such a situation, it is likely that supply prices will decrease (by 3-5%), especially in the most competitive markets and locations.