The World Bank made its conclusions
Russia can be congratulated on its remarkable achievement: at the end of last year, the World Bank included it in the list of countries with a high level of gross national income (GNI) per capita — $14,250. A year earlier, the figure was $12,830, which corresponded to a more modest “above average” category. We should rejoice at the progress: the World Bank is far from a friendly financial institution for us and it will not simply “play along” with Russia. At the same time, the WB decision is purely statistical in nature: it does not take into account a lot of nuances that are painfully familiar to ordinary Russians.
According to the classification adopted by the World Bank, all states are divided by GNI per person into four groups — high, above average, below average and low. When calculating GNI per capita, the World Bank has used the Atlas method since 1993. It takes the average dollar exchange rate over the last three years, adjusting for differences in inflation rates between the country in question and the countries of the Eurozone, Japan, the UK and the US. And then he divides the resulting figure in dollars by the population. GNI is GDP plus the balance of income received by citizens of the Russian Federation from abroad and exported abroad by foreigners.
The bank linked Russia's promotion to the «major league» to increased economic activity: in 2023, it was due to a «significant increase» in military spending, the recovery of trade (+6.8%), the financial sector (+8.7%) and construction (+6.6). As noted in the WB report, these factors led to growth in both real (3.6%) and nominal (10.9%) GDP. In turn, according to Rosstat, last year the average per capita income of all Russians amounted to 53.1 thousand rubles, and the median (half of the population has incomes above this amount, the other half — below) — 40.1 thousand rubles.
This is not the first time that Russia has been included in the list of countries with a high level of per capita GNI; it was already in this top in the period from 2012 to 2014. This status did not bring it anything special at that time, having no effect on the dynamics of investment and credit activity or capital inflow. Russia has not really become richer or more successful. Who can guarantee that today, under the conditions of total sanctions, everything will be different?
“Calculating the level of well-being based on dividing GNI by the number of residents of the country is not relevant in the case of Russia,” says Alexander Shneiderman, head of the sales and customer support department at Alfa-Forex. — I'll give you three reasons. Firstly, a sharp increase in industry for the needs of defense orders. These volumes affect the GNI indicator, but ordinary people do not have any preferences in this case. Secondly, we still have a gigantic income gap between the absolute majority and the absolute minority. This is evidenced by the latest measurements of the Ministry of Finance. Thus, according to Minister Siluanov, the increase in the personal income tax rate from 2025 will affect only 3.2% of working citizens — those who earn over 200 thousand rubles per month.»
The high level of debt among Russians does not add to optimism. According to the Central Bank, 50 million people have at least one loan, this is 40% of the adult population. In a number of regions, the maximum debt burden exceeded 100%. Consequently, Shneiderman summarizes, there is no point in talking about $14 thousand per person and enthusiastically accepting the news about Russia’s advancement in the World Bank ranking.
“The World Bank’s assessment is generally formal; it is a purely statistical indicator, which makes us neither warm nor cold,” says leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies, economist Nikita Maslennikov. – The World Bank publishes monthly reports on the Russian economy, a kind of “snapshot” of its state. The current decision is primarily due to the high dynamics of wages. There is no particular reason for delight here, since such dynamics are associated with a frankly abnormal situation on the labor market, with an acute shortage of personnel in most sectors. In addition, from July 1 in Russia, housing and communal services tariffs have been indexed by 10%, which leads to a reduction in both nominal and real incomes of the population. And not one-time, but extended over time.”
The question also arises: what about the inflation factor? Without adjustment for annual inflation, which, according to calculations by the Ministry of Economic Development, amounted to 8.61% in June, the figure from the World Bank looks like a kind of abstraction, divorced from life. In addition, Maslennikov summarizes, the World Bank’s assessment does not take into account the colossal differentiation in the incomes of Russians: according to Rosstat, for the 10% of the most affluent population, they exceed the income of the 10% of the least affluent by 14.8 times.