There are doubts about doctors and teachers
Turners, milling machine operators, fitters, welders — in five years, these technical professions will be the most in demand in Russia. Doctors, social workers, teachers, and cooks will also be in much higher-than-average demand, the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection stated. Meanwhile, this forecast is far from indisputable: it is conditional, given today's volatility and instability of trends not only in the Russian employment sector, but in the economy as a whole.
“We forecast the need for human resources… and saw that technical professions are not just in demand, but will be in greater demand than usual,” noted Mikhail Kirsanov, director of the Department of Employment and Labor Migration of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Russian Federation. In addition, according to him, with the advent of new programs in higher and secondary specialized educational institutions, there will be a need for teachers who will not only teach, but also formulate curricula. Demand for chefs will also increase as competition in the restaurant business intensifies.
In general, the demand for a profession is determined by several factors. In particular, the number of vacancies on the market, salary level, qualification requirements, and interest among students are taken into account. You can, of course, try to look into the future — more or less distant, but it is not a fact that life will fully coincide with this vision. It is unlikely, for example, that five years ago – before the start of the coronavirus pandemic – anyone predicted the “dramatic” growth of couriers in the country. We talked to Alexey Zubets, a professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, about how realistic the forecast of the Ministry of Labor is.
— The situation with technical vacancies is clear. In 2022-2023, we have a trend toward reindustrialization. It required people capable of performing various production operations. Today, both large factories and small enterprises still need mechanics, technicians, assemblers, welders, foundry workers, turners, and service technicians. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that this trend will continue. The key rate will increase, which was confirmed by the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, at the recent Central Bank forum in St. Petersburg. This means a barrier to the development of the real sector of the economy: at a rate of 16-20%, loans become unavailable. Accordingly, many projects related to mechanical engineering have little chance of implementation in the future. Since investment activity in Russia is falling, the market may not need new workers in the future.
— The main question here is whether the state will purposefully and systematically develop a network of medical and educational institutions, increase staff salaries, and recruit additional people. Which is far from a fact. Yes, today various plans have been announced to retrain specialists in these sectors, but in this case it is the financial, material component of the matter that is important. If doctors and teachers remain a low-paid category, no one will study these specialties. And if demand increases, it will only be in the private paid segment, but not in the public sector.
— The demand for them is great even now; this is one of the most sought-after professions on the market. I think that as incomes rise, Russians will increasingly eat out. For example, in Western Europe this has long been the order of things: people mostly have lunch and dinner in restaurants and cafes. However, I have great doubts that everyone will run to retrain as cooks. In general, the Ministry of Labor in its forecast is based on current economic realities, of which there may be little left in five years.
— One thing is clear: today the demand is especially great for specialists in retail and wholesale trade, for marketers, for everyone involved in retail, for cashiers. They are definitely required in large quantities, and the situation is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Couriers, delivery workers, drivers, cleaners, social workers, and caregivers are not going anywhere either. Let me remind you that, according to the President’s February statement in his address to the Federal Assembly, by 2030, “long-term care services should be provided to 100% of citizens who need it.” This is about half a million people — elderly, sick, infirm, bedridden.
Accordingly, if this program is implemented, we will need many more social workers than now. Moreover, this type of labor activity cannot be automated. Plus, as part of government measures to increase the birth rate and the number of large families, people who know how to care for children will be needed when the mother is at work.