Experts told how the dollar, euro and yuan will strengthen against the backdrop of important mid-summer news
After the US imposed sanctions against the Moscow Exchange and its infrastructure on June 12, the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar did not last long. Last week, the American currency strengthened by more than 2.4 rubles, as a result of which the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set its official dollar exchange rate at 88.13 rubles. The ruble also fell in price against the euro. Analysts attributed the reversal in dollar and euro exchange rates to a decrease in the supply of currency by exporters after taxes. MK found out from experts how the ruble exchange rate will change in July.
Since the beginning of July, the Central Bank has reduced daily sales of foreign currency to 8.4 billion rubles. Against the background of a decrease in the volume of repatriation of revenue from exporting companies, this should have contributed to the weakening of the ruble. Indeed, in the first week of July, the ruble weakened against the main unfriendly currencies, dropping to the level of 88.13 rubles per dollar and 95.57 rubles per euro, according to the rate established by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. True, the value of the yuan has remained virtually unchanged: the Chinese currency is trading around the 12 ruble mark.
At the same time, from July 5 to August 6, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation decided to allocate 123.8 billion rubles for the purchase of foreign currency and gold within the framework of the budget rule. Now the daily volume of transactions will be 5.4 billion rubles, which is almost one and a half times more than the daily volume in the previous month (from June 7 to July 4). Experts disagreed on how such a step by Anton Siluanov’s department would affect the strength of the ruble. “These operations take place within the framework of the budget rule — a mechanism that redistributes income from the export of raw materials, with the task of reducing the impact of raw material prices on the country’s economy,” says Oleg Kalmanovich, chief analyst at Neomarkets. “Incomes are projected to be higher, which means we need to buy more currency and gold. This mechanism is compensatory, and these actions should not have a direct impact on the ruble exchange rate.”
However, there is another opinion. “An increase in the volume of purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance provokes a weakening of the national currency,” says Alexander Shneiderman, head of the customer support and sales department at Alfa-Forex. — It is planned to purchase yuan, the main foreign currency in the Russian Federation today. In order to regulate this process and prevent the ruble from falling, which will immediately affect the level of inflation, the Central Bank is taking a retaliatory measure to sell yuan and gold, which strengthens the ruble exchange rate. This process of netting through transactions is reflected in the statement records — without the actual shipment of gold and cash.” Now the threshold for purchases and sales is 86.2 rubles per dollar. However, due to increased purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance, the ruble may fall against the dollar to 91.2 rubles per unit of US currency, the analyst believes.
Sales—purchases of foreign currency by financial departments—are far from the only factor influencing the ruble exchange rate. Let us remind you that on July 26 the regulator will make a decision on the key rate: most analysts expect an increase in this indicator. And if they are right, then such a step should be positive for the ruble. Thus, according to Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments, against the backdrop of high inflation, the regulator may raise the key rate, and this factor favors the ruble.
As Freedom Finance Global leading analyst Natalya Milchakova noted, the decision on the key rate will be made at the end of the month, when the ruble exchange rate is traditionally affected by the tax period, so at the end of July, a strengthening of the ruble will be more likely than a weakening. “Most likely, the national currency exchange rate will fluctuate within a certain range of about 90 rubles,” BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov continues the conversation. — In my opinion, for the current situation, the equilibrium level is 5 rubles higher, at around 95 rubles per dollar. For the euro, a trading range of 93.45-97.5 rubles is predicted, and for the yuan — 11.5-12.4 rubles.»
In addition to the decision of the Bank of Russia on the key rate, the strength of the ruble in July may be affected factors such as geopolitics and new sanctions, economic data from Russia and its main trading partners, general sentiment in global financial markets, the situation with the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings and demand for foreign currency from importers, the expert pointed out. And yet, none of the financiers surveyed expects the national currency to collapse to 100 rubles per dollar in July. According to Milchakova, it is somewhat more likely that the ruble will weaken to this level in August or as early as the 4th quarter of 2024 in the presence of corresponding “black swans” or other unpleasant surprises. In July, the analyst expects the dollar to be in the range of 85-91 rubles, the euro to trade in the range of 91-96 rubles, and the yuan in the range of 11.7-12.4 rubles.