High inflation, high profitability and minimal risks
The average size of a deposit in Russia opened in the first half of the year, according to the Banki.ru platform, exceeded one million rubles. The adequacy of this figure itself raises questions among financiers, but the trend is indisputable: against the backdrop of a high Central Bank rate, more and more Russians prefer to invest in ruble deposits, while simultaneously getting rid of dollars and euros. Experts interviewed by MK consider such tactics absolutely justified: according to them, at a minimum, it is devoid of obvious risks, and at maximum, it brings people a good income.
< span class="article__picture-author" itemprop="author">Photo: Alexey Merinov
The most popular were deposits for a period of 6 months (94% of the total), followed by deposits for a period of 3 months (5.4%), the share of annual deposits is negligible — 0.2%. In total, according to the Central Bank at the beginning of May, the total volume of household deposits reached a record high of 46.4 trillion rubles, of which 4.1 trillion were placed in foreign currency accounts. Another 15.7 trillion cash rubles are in the hands of citizens, roughly speaking, “under the pillow.”
As for ruble deposits specifically, since the beginning of the SVO they have grown by 18 trillion rubles. This is an absolutely incredible pace, which is 2.3 times higher than the dynamics of 2010-2019: the average annual growth then was 9.1%.
According to statistics from the Deposit Insurance Agency (DIA), as of April 1, 2023, the average deposit in Russian banks exceeded 300 thousand rubles. In 2022, the figure was in the range of 270-276 thousand rubles. In comparison with the results of a study by the Banki.ru platform, these figures are several times lower, although experts advise making allowances for the scale of data coverage. But even if the average size of newly opened deposits does not reach a million rubles, the trend towards an increase in ruble savings is obvious.
«Although the Central Bank has not stated this directly, I am sure that the government is trying to get people to exchange dollars and euros for rubles and open ruble accounts in banks. This is one of the purposes of the high Central Bank rate,» says Alexander Razuvaev, member of the supervisory board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers. «According to the regulator's own estimates, in the summer of 2022, Russians had $100 billion in hand. Since then, some have been «eaten up,» and some have lost their jobs in the recession. But many have taken their money to banks and the Moscow Exchange (there are over 30 million private investors in the country today). We will have to live with high rates for at least a few more years: the authorities simply have no choice — if earlier, in the pre-sanction era, an external credit window was open, today there is nowhere to borrow funds (including to finance the government debt) except from the population.»
There are two sectors in the Russian economy where people earn much more than in other industries. This is, firstly, everything related to the military-industrial complex and the military-industrial complex, and secondly, the IT sector. This is the main breeding ground for ruble deposits, which are the most understandable and risk-free. Russians’ fears about cash dollars and euros kept at home are not unfounded, notes Razuvaev: in Russia this money may finally lose relevance due to some next sanctions ban.
“The data from the Banki.ru platform is a relatively narrow sample,” explains senior analyst at Pervaya Management Company Natalya Vashchelyuk. — It was there that the average deposit exceeded 1 million rubles in the first half of 2024. As for DIA statistics, it covers all deposits subject to compulsory insurance (97.5% of depositors). In general, their average size, according to the DIA, as of April 1 of this year was 538 thousand rubles, at the end of 2023 — 482 thousand. The amounts are rising for two main reasons. The first is high interest rates (and, accordingly, profitability): in the first quarter of 2024 — about 15%, and a year earlier — 7.5-8% per annum. The second reason: according to Rosstat, in January-March of this year, household income per person increased to 51.8 thousand rubles per month, which is 14.2% more than in the first quarter of 2023.”
In addition, Vashchelyuk explains, ruble deposits are a reliable savings instrument with a predetermined return. They do not require special professional knowledge and are available to a wide range of people, unlike the situation in the stock and debt markets (although the profitability there may be higher). Therefore, in an environment of high interest rates, the growth of interest in them is absolutely understandable.
“High inflation in Russia, sanctions, geopolitical uncertainty — all this forces people to open ruble deposits at high interest rates so as not to lose purchasing power,” notes financial analyst Fedor Sidorov. — The safest option seems to be banking instruments, not shares, especially taking into account the deposit insurance system. These savings tactics can have their pros and cons. The advantages are the absence of risks and stable income. The disadvantages are associated with inflation and interest tax at a rate of 13%, which reduces the real profit from investing funds.”