Experts said whether the cost of square meters will decrease due to innovations in the field of housing lending
The fact that preferential family mortgages in Russia will remain after July 1 was known in advance — President Putin promised this. But under what conditions, the question remained open. Now the Ministry of Finance has revealed the updated requirements for family mortgages. Families with children, where at least one child is under 6 years old, will now be able to get a housing loan on preferential terms. For them, the rate will be 6% per annum, the down payment will be 20%. The program will operate until 2030. MK found out from experts how the updated family mortgage will change the market and what the authorities really want to achieve with such changes.
The circle of potential borrowers according to the updated parameters of a family mortgage is narrowing, because only families with at least one child under 6 years old will be able to apply for it, and previously everyone who had minor children could apply for such a housing loan. An exception is made only for families with a disabled child, for residents of regions with a low volume of construction and small towns (with a population of up to 50 thousand people) — there the “age limit” in relation to children in the family still does not apply.
The maximum amount of the new preferential loan is 12 million rubles for Moscow, St. Petersburg, the Moscow and Leningrad regions and 6 million rubles for other regions. Thus, the family will be able to buy an apartment in a new building or borrow money for the construction of an individual residential building. At the same time, family Russians who meet the requirements for receiving preferential housing loans can buy an apartment for a larger amount — up to 30 million rubles in Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg, Leningrad region and up to 15 million rubles in other regions. But in this case, for that part of the loan that is higher than the amount established by the state program, the market interest rate will apply.
As Oleg Repchenko, head of the Analytical Center “Real Estate Market Indicators,” said, before July 1, the share of all preferential programs in the total volume of mortgage issuance was more than 90%, while up to half of the preferential issuances accounted for old-style family mortgages. The Ministry of Finance believes that the preferential share in the total volume of mortgages should be about 25%, which is why they updated the terms of family mortgages. Now its coverage will become smaller: some potential borrowers have dropped out of it. But this is good for the market as a whole: decreased sales will sooner or later lead to lower prices. “Not now, perhaps closer to the New Year, because for now developers have a backlog of sales created during the period of rush demand,” the analyst said. — But the funds will be spent on construction, escrow accounts will need to be replenished. And then developers will have to meet the buyers halfway and reconsider the price tags. Not explicitly, but under the guise of promotions and discounts, but this will still reduce the cost of the property for the buyer.” It turns out that all Russians who want to purchase housing will ultimately benefit from a family mortgage under the new conditions, coupled with the abolition of preferential mortgages from July 1.
On the issue of prices per square meters, however, experts do not have a common opinion. But it is curious that one of the consequences of the introduction of the updated family mortgage may be an influx of residents to small towns in Russia. “In cities with a population of up to 50 thousand people, where lending conditions have remained the same, we can expect an influx of clients, primarily for the construction of cottages,” believes Ruslan Syrtsov, managing director of the Metrium company. In general, a decrease in demand for family mortgages may create the preconditions for an adjustment in housing prices, but developers are unlikely to radically reduce prices, as their costs continue to rise. The basis of mortgage demand will continue to be families with children, but some of them will be reoriented towards subsidized loans from developers, the expert is sure.
Well, the rest may think about moving. “Perhaps someone will even specifically register in small towns in order to get a family mortgage,” suggested the founder of the management company Smarent, Viktor Zubik.
Another interesting change in connection with updating the requirements for a family mortgage may affect to the suburban landscape, where there is traditionally a lot of individual housing construction (IHC). “The old conditions with payments to families with two or more minor children remain relevant, but not for new buildings, but for the construction of individual houses,” noted Sergei Solovykh, head of the department for working with wealthy clients of the Fontvielle Investment Company. “That is, the change in the terms of the program is intended not so much to cool the market as to reorient it from the purchase of apartments to individual housing construction.”
But most experts point to the obvious demographic implications of the announced mortgage program from the state. “Already in 2025, we can see the positive impact of the updated parameters on the birth rate, since the birth of a child for many families will be the only chance to improve their living conditions,” says Dmitry Golev, director of Optima Development.