“The task is not easy”
At the end of the first half of 2024, the volume of Turkish supplies to the Russian Federation decreased by almost 22% (to $3.79 billion) compared to the same period in 2023, according to data published by the Turkish Exporters Council (TIM). Thus, Russia dropped from 7th to 10th place in the list of main buyers of Turkish goods, primarily industrial goods. its share in total exports is only about 3.5%.
According to Hakan Topkurulu, the SWIFT system has become a “bad dream” for countries that are dependent on the West, since it allows it to control all cash flows. To get rid of obstacles, Moscow and Ankara must “take rapid steps towards the mutual use of national currencies.” In May, the Russian Ambassador to Turkey Alexey Erkhov spoke on the same topic.
Due to pressure from Western financial regulators and the risk of falling under secondary sanctions, Turkish banks do not accept payments from the Russian Federation, the diplomat noted. Accordingly, importers cannot transfer funds for purchased products, and exporters do not receive them.
Similar stories are unfolding everywhere. Thus, the digital bank from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Wio began to reject transfers in dirhams from individuals from the Russian Federation, although until recently nothing like this had been noticed. In matters of receiving and sending payments, Wio is regulated by the Central Bank of the UAE. It attracted Russians who had a residence permit in Dubai with its flexible policy and convenient services: they could open accounts online, issue multi-currency cards, provide deposits with high rates and access to the securities market.
Recently, payments to Chinese counterparties through the VTB Shanghai bank, considered the flagship for transactions in the PRC, stopped going through. After the US Treasury imposed sanctions against Moscow Exchange on June 12, the share of payments reaching Chinese credit institutions decreased to 40-60%.
“It’s very likely that a payment system common to Turkey is only relevant for Ankara,” says economist and communications director at BitRiver Andrei Loboda. – Although creating a “bridge” Implementing financial flows is not a very difficult task; it requires time and technology. For the Kremlin, this is not a priority now, since it has enough trading partners with export potential like Turkey. We need a universal solution that will mitigate the transaction problem.»
Loboda recalled that an example of the integration of national payment systems is the joint project of the central banks of Iran and the Russian Federation, which provides for the early launch of the Iranian Shetab system in the Russian Federation. As for the Russian “Mir”, it is quite vulnerable in the international arena — its scaling is complicated by sanctions threats. From the beginning of 2024, the World maps stopped being accepted in Kyrgyzstan and in most banks in Armenia; the largest Kazakh bank, Halyk Bank, also refused to work with them.
“Creating a joint payment system with Turkey is not an easy task,” says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department of AMarkets . — After all, it is necessary to ensure the compatibility of standards, currency transactions, and the legislative framework. Such a product must interact with existing payment systems around the world. The United States and the European Union may try to interfere with the implementation of the project by introducing sanctions or putting pressure on banks. If the parties have the political will, the necessary resources, and the absence of serious obstacles, the system could be launched within one to two years. However, three to five years seem to be a more realistic period.”