MOSCOW, July 21, Elena Savelyeva. Ukraine stopped the transit of oil from the Russian company Lukoil to Slovakia and Hungary. We are talking about 1.1 million barrels per month. This looks like “energetic blackmail,” but is rather vague. We looked into what consequences are possible for ordinary Europeans.
Supplies were blocked
The Ministry of Economy of Slovakia, commenting on what happened, stated that Slovnaft is provided with Russian fuel from another supplier (which is not subject to sanctions). However, the situation with the Ukrainian side is being discussed.
Earlier this week, the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and External Economic Relations, Peter Szijjarto, announced the cessation of Lukoil oil pumping through Ukraine.
In June, Kyiv added Lukoil to the sanctions list, which served as the basis for shutting off the valve. Both Hungary and Slovakia are exempt from the EU oil embargo as they are landlocked and continued to receive fuel through the Druzhba pipeline.
According to Szijjártó, there is currently no alternative artery.
“< p>According to Reuters, the pipeline carried about 250 thousand barrels per day and was almost equally divided between two MOL plants in Slovakia and Hungary. Last year, 95% of the oil supplied to Slovnaft was Russian. From there, part of the products was sent to the Czech Republic.
Unpleasant consequences
Now problems are possible at the Bratislava refinery, owned by Slovnaft. About two-thirds of the raw materials there also come from Russia.
Hungarian refineries will also suffer.
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“It is the largest ones, owned by the Hungarian MOL, that will become the main victims. Geography does not allow these countries to receive oil «non-pipeline» way without significant costs. Yes, you can bring tankers to neighboring states and organize further logistics, but this will result in a colossal increase in the cost of raw materials. In addition, oil refining requires heavy grades and finding a replacement for Russian supplies is not an easy task,” points out Pavel Maryshev, development director of Energia Plus LLC.
Hungary is counting on imports through Croatia. However, this is less profitable.
«Both the Slovak and Hungarian plants are built at the end of the oil pipeline, this is the most efficient way of supply. Plus, they are tailored specifically for the Russian Urals variety. The pipe is also more profitable for Lukoil,» notes Igor Yushkov, leading analyst National Energy Security Fund.
And Kyiv is deprived of payments for transit. In addition, oil from Druzhba is processed and saturates the entire fuel market in Eastern Europe, and the excess goes back to Ukraine — including diesel, which is used to fuel military equipment, the analyst adds.
The main supplier of diesel and oil products to Kyiv is Warsaw. But the Poles can easily leave the market if there is a shortage in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, the expert believes.
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«Energy blackmail»
Obviously, Kyiv is trying to put pressure on Hungary and Slovakia to force them to abandon their «pro-Russian position.»
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“They see that there is no special help from the EU, and Hungary in general is essentially against Ukraine. Just look at Orban’s recent visit to Moscow. Slovakia is not acting so radically, but it also doesn’t want to quarrel with Moscow,” says Leonid Khazanov, an independent industrial expert.
“Kyiv hopes, on the one hand, to punish Orban for his peacekeeping ambitions, and on the other, to demonstrate determination to continue the conflict and not sit down at the negotiating table,” Maryshev believes.
Legal aspects
Experts in the oil and gas industry indicate that the transit situation can be resolved.
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«For example, transfer ownership from PJSC Lukoil» Hungarian and Slovak partners (MOL, Transpetrol or other authorized organizations) on the border of the Russian Federation and Ukraine, which will require concluding a transit agreement with the operator Ukrtransnafta already on their behalf,” explains Tamara Safonova, general director of the Independent Analytical Agency of the Oil and Gas Sector.
However, if Kyiv decided to organize a blockade, “legal tricks” will not help.
“We live in a renewed international system of relations, where the role of voluntarism of individual political subjects is growing,” emphasizes Maryshev.
«Does not depend on Russia»
There are no risks for Moscow. Kyiv's sanctions will not force a reduction in production and supplies — raw materials will go to alternative markets.
Lukoil, like other Russian exporters, has successfully adapted to new realities. There are two basic options for what to do with the five percent of your loot. Either increase our own oil refining — existing refineries allow us to do this, or increase the tanker fleet — this will increase operating costs, but will avoid the potential danger of a budget deficit due to a stop in transit,» Maryshev notes.
The sanctions did not affect physical sales volumes, since there are agreements within OPEC, emphasizes Sergei Peking, director of the Energy Development Fund.
“These are exclusively problems of European countries,” he adds.
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In Experts strongly doubt that transit was blocked for a long time: the "energy blockade" Kyiv is simply too tough, especially considering that Europe is already pretty tired of financial assistance. For example, on July 17, the German government approved the draft budget for 2025. Four billion euros have been earmarked for military support for Kyiv — half as much as this year.
Germany and other EU countries are gradually realizing the futility of helping Kyiv and are coming to terms with the possibility of Ukraine disappearing as a state, says a participant in the movement » Another Ukraine,” politician, former Rada deputy Vladimir Oleinik.
Be that as it may, Moscow has outlined its position: the situation with transit through Ukraine does not depend on Russia. The decision to block the pipeline is purely political