GENERICO.ruЭкономикаThe analyst assessed the prospects for cooperation between Gazprom and India

The analyst assessed the prospects for cooperation between Gazprom and India

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MOSCOW, July 21The Indian market is promising for Russian gas companies, but the challenges begin with geography — it is difficult to undertake large-scale construction of a gas pipeline for several thousand kilometers now, but Gazprom may consider technological cooperation with Indian companies in the construction of pipelines, compressor stations and gas power plants, said Sergey Kapitonov, an analyst at the Skoltech Energy Transition and ESG Project Center, in a commentary.
Entering the new fast-growing markets of South Asia is promising for Russia, because «very good growth rates in demand» are predicted there, the agency's interlocutor noted.

«Now India consumes just over 60 billion cubic meters of gas per year. This is very little for such a huge country. For comparison, Germany, with a population of about 80 million people, consumes more — 76 billion cubic meters by the end of 2023 «, he clarified.

At the same time, India is completely dependent on liquefied natural gas for its imports, which is more expensive than pipeline gas, less reliable and requires a powerful infrastructure — the construction of regasification terminals inside the country, etc., Kapitonov continued.

Gas will reach India

“To reach such a fast-growing market through a pipeline would be very promising and interesting. But here challenges begin, of which there are many. The first challenge is from the point of view of geography, because we can get there either through the countries of the Middle East or through the countries of Central Asia,” — the expert believes.
< br />You can get to India through Turkmenistan. Now the republic is looking for alternative channels for selling its gas, investing very significant funds and efforts in the development of a giant field in the south of Turkmenistan — Galkynysh, Kapitonov noted.

Of the options for “expanding” the Turkmen gas hub, he named line D – a gas pipeline with a length of almost 1 thousand kilometers connecting Galkynysh with western China through Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. At the same time, three lines are already working.
The second option is the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline. “The Turkmens have built their part of the gas pipeline, and then what’s next with Afghanistan is still there. Whether they come to an agreement (with him — ed.) or not to reach an agreement is unclear,” he noted.
The expert named supplies to Europe as the third option for Turkmenistan. They, however, «are still quite speculative and, probably, in many ways, fantastic.»

How can Gazprom fill Turkmenistan's pipeline

But you can try to cooperate, for example, with Russia in terms of organizing the Southern Supply Corridor, Kapitonov thinks. “Conventionally, Turkmenistan may not have enough strength to completely fill the pipeline, and Russia can send its gas to Turkmenistan,” he said.

The expert recalled the Central Asia – Center gas pipeline system created back in Soviet times with a capacity of about 50 billion cubic meters, and in some sections even more. “By modernizing it, we can get Russian gas to Turkmenistan and continue to cooperate together, filling this pipe. This is one of the options and, in my opinion, the most realistic,” the agency’s interlocutor believes.

On the waves of the Persian Gulf

“The second option is the story with the Middle East, with swaps with Iran. This is interesting,” the expert continued. Russia can bring its gas to the north of Iran, to the most populated areas where gas is needed, while Iranian fields are in the south, primarily in the Persian Gulf, he specified.

“But how can they be delivered from the Persian Gulf to target markets, for example, India? There are two options. Through Pakistan, but this is a long political story, with the Mir gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan to India. We know what kind of relations India has with Pakistan, plus the Americans put pressure on this project. It is still at the fantasy stage,” Kapitonov believes.

Another option is to build directly across the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Oman. This could be a gas pipeline without Iranian ports, directly to India, bypassing Pakistan, or from Oman — also directly to India, the expert believes.
There is a small construction area there, comparable to the Nord Stream or Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, but at the same time there are very great depths, he said. “It is not clear how this can be organized from a technical point of view. But if the parties decide to implement such a project in this part, then Russian engineering experience may be in demand,” Kapitonov added.

Gazprom will be able to build pipes in India

“It seems to me that it might be difficult to take aim at some kind of powerful infrastructure construction, for example, a gas pipeline, to India now. We see Gazprom, which is not in a very good financial position right now. To build some kind of pipes for thousands of kilometers that are not clear when they pay off, maybe not the best idea,” he says.
But you can participate, for example, in tenders within the country for the construction of infrastructure, says Kapitonov. “In India, LNG terminals are located on the coast, and consumption centers are already deeper in the country. And there is such a “bottleneck” — gas simply arrives at the port, and where it is required, there is no infrastructure,” he explained.
Gazprom is “excellent” at building pipes, the expert says. In Soviet times, the company built pipes from Turkmenistan to the north of Western Siberia, in completely different climatic conditions. “Gazprom will also be able to build pipes in India very well,” Kapitonov is sure.
«It seems to me that such technological cooperation can be considered in the construction of pipes, compressor stations, gas power plants and other things. This, perhaps, at this stage, would probably be the best vector for the development of gas cooperation and opportunistic contracts for LNG supplies from Russian projects. But I don’t see any realistic strategic big things yet, unfortunately,” he said in conclusion.

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