MOSCOW, July 21 Diversifying their economies helps countries reduce their dependence on oil exports amid the energy transition, in particular by reserving excess oil and gas revenues, as is the case in Russia , and their investment in other industries, but for most oil-producing countries this is painful for the budget, said Alexander Amiragyan, director of the center for the economics of fuel and energy industries of the Center for Economic Development.
«»The main tool for reducing dependence and diversifying the economies of oil countries is reserving income from oil and gas in special funds for a rainy day (analogous to the National Welfare Fund in Russia), as well as their targeted direction for infrastructure development, creating conditions for investment in new industries» , — said the expert. 
< br />As Amiragyan noted, the long-term prospects for global oil demand depend primarily on the speed of development of alternative, that is, “green” technologies in various sectors of the economy, as well as the nature of the climate policy being implemented in individual regions and the world as a whole.
At the same time, in the most “pleasant” scenario for oil countries, global oil demand in the next ten to twenty years or more will most likely remain without significant changes, but there is also a very likely scenario of a transition to a decrease in demand, albeit at a slow pace, the expert explained .
The energy transition and limited demand for oil in the future will lead to relatively low prices for “black gold,” which could significantly reduce the income of oil countries. Therefore, it is important for them to think now about how to build their economy in the future.
“However, for most middle- and low-income oil countries (for example, in Africa), the energy transition and the need to rebuild the economy may be more painful, since they do not have excess financial resources to implement long-term policies to diversify the economy,” Amiraghyan added. 
< strong>GEOGRAPHY OF THE «OIL NEEDLE»
To assess the dependence of countries on a specific industry or resource, various indicators are used.
Thus, the World Bank publishes estimates of the share of rent from individual resources in GDP by country. The calculated rent is the difference between the price of a product and the average cost of its production. The world's most oil-dependent economies in 2021 were Libya, Iraq, the Republic of Congo, Angola, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Guyana, and Azerbaijan, where the share of oil rent in GDP was more than 20%. In other oil-producing countries of the Persian Gulf, the figure was lower — 10-15%, and in Russia — about 10%.
It often makes sense to consider dependence on oil together with natural gas, the expert noted. According to the World Bank, in 2021 the most gas-rich economies in the world with the share of gas rent in GDP exceeding 10% were Brunei, Qatar and Uzbekistan. The first two countries reached such indicators through the development of LNG production and export, and Uzbekistan is a large regional producer with a high importance of gas in the economy. In Russia the figure was 6%.
«If we consider the total role of oil and gas in the economy, the leaders in the world were oil countries with low economic diversification (Libya — 61%, Iraq — 43%, Republic of the Congo — 35%, Azerbaijan — 30%), and in Russia the figure was 15%,” Amiragyan added.
You can also assess the degree of dependence of a country’s economy on oil by its share in national budget revenues.
As the expert noted, if we consider countries with middle income levels and below, then the greatest dependence of the national budget on oil and gas revenues with an indicator of more than 50%, according to data for the second half of the 2010s, was noted in Iraq, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Azerbaijan, Angola , the Republic of the Congo, that is, in countries with a clear predominance of the oil and gas sector and the absence of other sectors of the economy commensurate with it. In Russia, the figure was estimated at just over 20%, which is lower than the value in Kazakhstan (about 30%) and at the level of Mexico. 
EXAMPLES OF SUCCESS
A number of countries have already succeeded in reducing the dependence of their economies on oil through diversification, a striking example is Norway, and the UAE is a relatively new one, said the CSR expert. Also, according to the World Bank data on the share of oil rent in GDP for 2000-2021, the greatest decline is observed in a number of Gulf countries (Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia), which during this period succeeded against the backdrop of rising world oil prices. oil and the expansion of its production will significantly reduce the contribution of the oil industry to the economy.
In addition, Amiragyan included Indonesia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Angola, Kazakhstan, as well as Russia, as successful examples of partial “getting off the oil needle,” where in 2000-2021 the share of oil rent in GDP decreased from 15% to 10%, primarily due to the diversification of the economy and the accelerated growth of such industries as the agro-industrial complex, mechanical engineering, metallurgy, and the service sector
“»The manufacturing industry, including those related to the use of goods, are priority areas for the rapid development of the economy. oil, tourism, agriculture, financial and logistics services,» the expert concluded.