An increase in the indicator of passenger cars sold on the Russian market at the end of 2024 and 2025 is expected even under a pessimistic scenario.
< p>According to Autostat, a total of 1,058,708 new passenger cars were sold on the Russian market last year: this result was 69% more compared to the disastrous 2022 (then sales collapsed by almost 59% to 626 ,3 thousand pieces). For comparison, the result of the “pre-crisis” 2021 is about 1.516 million new passenger cars. A new forecast for the Russian car market has now been prepared for this and next years.
In the photo: Lada Vesta
NAPI (National Agency for Industrial Information) prepared its own forecast for the Russian market of new passenger cars. Experts formed it with the construction of three scenarios: basic, optimistic and pessimistic. At the same time, all options provide for an increase in the indicator compared to the previous year, however, even the optimistic scenario does not bring the expected result closer to the “pre-crisis” value.
According to the NAPI forecast, the base scenario assumes that by the end of the current year The Russian market for new passenger cars will grow by 5.87% to approximately 1,096,640 cars sold. And in 2025, the figure may grow by another 1.98% – to 1,118,310 units.
In the photo: Chery Tiggo 7 Pro Max
If we take an optimistic scenario, then by the end of this year local dealers will presumably be able to sell 1,123,290 new cars, which is 8.45% more than in 2023. The “optimistic” forecast for next year is 1,196,980 copies and an annual increase of 6.56%.
If the situation on the Russian car market develops according to the pessimistic scenario, by the end of 2024, dealers will be able to sell only about 1,047,070 new passenger cars (an increase of 1.09%). The result for 2025 under this scenario could be about 1,055,690 (an increase of 0.82% compared to the previous year).
In the photo: Belgee X50
NAPI has identified a list of factors that negatively affect the situation on the Russian market for new passenger cars. It includes sanctions, an increase in the recycling fee (from August 2023, plus further growth is planned), tightening conditions for certification of imported equipment (from October last year), as well as high interest rates on loans/leasing and tightening car loan conditions for individuals with high incomes. debt load (from July 1, 2024). Experts also included in this list the upcoming tax reform (to be carried out in 2025) and the implementation of pent-up demand: the fact is that many customers have satisfied the need for a new car in 2023, so they will not buy a new car within the next two years.
The forecast for all three scenarios assumes that domestic and Chinese brands will dominate the Russian market of new passenger cars in 2024-2025. According to the base scenario, at the end of this year, cars of “celestial” brands will account for 56.30% (in 2025 — 56.28%), Russian — 34.17% (in 2025 — 34.74%), the rest (probably on parallel imports) – 9.52% (in 2025 – 8.98%).