MOSCOW, July 24The International Monetary Fund (IMF), while maintaining its estimate of Russian GDP growth for 2024, took into account the results of the first half of the year, however, in the second half of the year, the growth of the Russian economy may slow down due to a possible increase in the key rate by the Bank of Russia and the end of the preferential mortgage program, according to experts interviewed.
Earlier in July, the IMF maintained its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 at 3.2% and lowered its estimate for 2025 to 1.5% — 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in the fund's April report. The forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for 2024 assumes growth of the Russian economy by 2.8%, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation expects growth of 2.5-3.5% in 2024, and in 2025 — by 1-2%. 
Hard PrEP
«The main reasons for maintaining the high forecast figures for 2024 are related to the actual results of the first half of the year. Thus, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, Russian GDP grew by 5% in January-May 2024. The main drivers are the manufacturing industry and construction. Under these conditions, the forecast for annual growth of 3.2% means that in the second half of the year the rate of economic growth will decrease — to about 2%. Therefore, we are talking about a gradual slowdown in the economy,» notes Marcel Salikhov, Director of the Center for Economic Expertise at the Irkutsk State Medical University of the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
“The main reason for the slowdown is the tough monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, which maintains a high key rate and may raise it at the next meeting,” explains the expert.
Maxim Osadchy, head of the analytical department of BKF bank, shares the same opinion. “It should be taken into account that further tightening of monetary policy — the expected increase in the key rate — could help cool the overheated Russian economy and weaken the rate of economic growth,” he notes.
The chief economist of the Expert RA rating agency, Anton Tabakh, believes that economic development is due to relatively favorable external conditions and fairly high budget expenditures. “Yes, they did not grow, but they still remain high… At the end of the year, growth will be slightly less than 3%. Our forecast is 2.9%,” Tabakh concluded. 
The subject of discussion at the Central Bank meeting on July 26 will be a step to increase the key rate, said the head of the Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, in early July. In turn, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Zabotkin noted that the arguments for raising the key rate are becoming even more powerful, and the arguments in favor of maintaining it have noticeably weakened.
Factor of the end of preferential mortgages
The termination of the preferential mortgage program from July 1 is another factor in the possible slowdown in the dynamics of Russian GDP growth, Salikhov and Tabakh agree on this.
“An additional factor is the winding down of the preferential mortgage program. The measures are aimed precisely at reducing inflation due to a certain “cooling” of the economy,” says Salikhov.
As Tabakh explains, due to the fact that preferential mortgages have ended, this segment will be rebuilt. “This will take some time and, naturally, will affect (GDP – ed.) growth,” he said.