Analyst Yushkov believes that an exchange of blows is planned
The scandalous saga of Ukraine blocking Russian oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary, which began in mid-July, appears to be entering a new phase. Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico has offered the Ukrainian side a «technical solution» to the problem. And Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak directly stated that Russian oil supplies to these countries continue, but did not specify how.
So far, we can definitely say that Slovakia and Hungary are losing about 80 thousand barrels of «black gold» per day as a result of Ukraine's oil demarche. Which is very painful for these countries. Hence Robert Fico's proposal to Kyiv of a «technical solution» to the problem, the details of which are not being made public. According to the author, several countries, including Slovakia itself, will participate in this solution.
The background to the issue is as follows. In mid-July, Slovakia and Hungary stopped receiving Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Ukraine, among other places. Both European powers threatened Kyiv with legal action, but nothing has changed. In this regard, Slovakia and Hungary are already planning to block the allocation of a 6.5 billion euro loan to Kyiv from the European Peace Fund…
Let us recall: the Druzhba oil pipeline starts in the Samara region and goes to Belarus. There it splits into two branches. The northern one, which pumped raw materials through Belarus to Germany and Poland. And the southern one – through Ukraine to Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic. It is this southern branch, judging by the growing scandal, that is not working.
True, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian government Alexander Novak said that Russia continues to supply oil to these countries. But he did not specify how. In search of an answer to this question, we turned to Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. According to him, the political «butting» around Druzhba did not begin yesterday.
— Back in the 6th package of anti-Russian sanctions, in April 2022, Europe wanted to completely ban the import of Russian oil, — he says. — Hungary blocked the adoption of the package in that version and ensured that only imports by sea were banned. Thus, pipeline oil was not subject to sanctions at all.
However, Poland, until the end of 2022, convinced Germany to refuse the services of “Friendship” at the level of the two countries. And she convinced me. From January 1, 2023, Berlin refused such supplies. And Poland… continued to purchase Russian oil! Until her contract with Russian companies ended. The northern line is currently not working. Only the southern branch carries oil.
— Most likely, the volumes of oil along this line have not decreased. It is just that the volumes of the Russian company that Kiev imposed sanctions on were replenished by other Russian suppliers. Transporting energy resources via pipelines is a very profitable business. Those who do not have this opportunity are forced to use sea transport for export deliveries. In this case, they “drive” it first to the port of Novorossiysk or to Ust-Luga in the Leningrad Region, and then by tankers by sea. Which is much more expensive than via the pipeline.
— First of all, our large oil company, which was banned from pumping fuel via Druzhba. Russia has not lost anything at the state level, because this company pays a tax on the extraction of minerals.
In fact, Ukraine, which started this mess, has not suffered any losses either. It pumps the same volumes of oil and receives money for the transit of the energy resource.
Oil refineries in Slovakia and Hungary are suffering. The volumes that they previously purchased under a long-term contract from an oil company that fell under sanctions were cheaper than what they are purchasing today from other Russian suppliers, but under short-term contracts. It turns out that their oil products are also more expensive.
— Kyiv's actions are also a political signal, first of all, for Hungary, which takes a clear negotiating position with respect to Moscow, which does not suit the current Ukrainian government. If the matter is «put on the back burner» today, it is clear that Ukraine will not rest on its laurels and will go further with its sanctions. But it also depends on neighboring countries, perhaps even to a greater extent than they do on it. It is possible that an «exchange of blows» is planned.
— They supply electricity to Ukraine. At the end of July, Slovakia cut off electricity supply to Ukraine for one day. Allegedly, due to some technical problems, some power line failed. This is official. Or, perhaps, this is a response political signal. If Kyiv does not abandon its policy of oil blackmail, it risks being left without electricity.
In addition, both Slovakia and Hungary sell certain volumes of oil products to Ukraine. They may stop doing so. Economic wars in our age of close cooperation and interdependence of states are not beneficial to anyone.