Economist Maslennikov: «The conditions for introducing quotas are not clear to everyone»
Although the ban on gasoline exports will be automatically renewed on August 1, the State Duma decided that this would not be enough to stabilize prices. Deputies proposed introducing quotas for fuel supplies to the domestic market and, in addition, increasing the share of sales on the exchange from 13% to 20%. According to experts, if the second measure is an absolutely logical, long-overdue step, then there are questions about the first one, concerning quotas: the expediency is not obvious, the implementation mechanism is unclear.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak was addressed by Deputy Speaker of the Lower House Boris Chernyshev. He pointed out the need to «stabilize the domestic fuel market, reduce prices at gas stations and ensure a stable supply of strategically important sectors of the economy with gasoline and diesel fuel.» The document states that in order to implement the quota mechanism, it is necessary to establish a government commission that will develop quotas on a quarterly basis, «based on the changing needs» of the market. It is proposed to introduce penalties for companies that do not comply with the established standards.
According to Chernyshev, since it is often more profitable for Russian fuel producers to sell their goods abroad, they provoke a shortage within the country, and as a result, the domestic consumer suffers. Which should become an absolute priority for business.
Since the beginning of July, wholesale prices for AI-95 gasoline have grown by 12.2%, to 72.5 thousand rubles per ton, according to data from the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange. As for retail prices, according to the head of the Russian Fuel Union (RTS) Evgeny Arkusha, they are growing within the official inflation rate of 9.2%. The pricing situation was discussed on July 29 at the State Duma Council and the Ministry of Energy. Those gathered recalled the ongoing scheduled repairs at oil refineries, problems with logistics and the railway (limited capacity): some plants simply cannot export fuel, which leads to a decrease in production and a reduction in supplies to the domestic market.
In turn, the speaker of parliament Vyacheslav Volodin ordered to hold an extended meeting of the Duma Committee on Energy and invite Pavel Sorokin, First Deputy Head of the Ministry of Energy, to report to it. In September 2023, at the height of the fuel crisis, Sorokin addressed the deputies, naming «gray exports» as one of the reasons for the destabilization of the market: its unscrupulous participants resold fuel abroad at exorbitant speculative rates — the difference between the domestic price and the export alternative exceeded 20 thousand rubles per ton.
«Today, the main reason for the growth of fuel prices is high inflation, the problem of which, of course, will not be solved by quotas,» says financial analyst Fyodor Sidorov. «This measure will not affect the situation with scheduled repairs of refineries in any way: during this period, gasoline production always decreases, and prices, accordingly, grow. Oil companies will perceive the introduction of quotas as an encroachment on their freedom of action and will try to find ways to circumvent the restrictions, for example, by raising prices for other goods and services.»
In the analyst's opinion, the initiative is clearly controversial, requiring effective control and regulation by the authorities. The prospects for its implementation will largely depend on the political will of the government.
«The proposal to increase the share of gasoline sales on the exchange from 13% to 20% in order to contain the growth of prices is absolutely normal,» notes leading expert of the Center for Political Technologies Nikita Maslennikov. — The issue has been in limbo for a long time: it has been repeatedly raised by both fuel market participants and the Federal Antimonopoly Service. As for quotas, the measure does not seem obvious: fuel shipments to farmers are proceeding as usual, there is no critical imbalance either on the wholesale market or on the retail market — at gas stations. In addition, the principle itself is unclear: how and under what conditions to introduce quotas — these can be any changeable factors related to the weather, the condition of harvesting equipment, the profitability of farms, anything.»