Russian-American relations are caught in a time loop
This has never happened before, and here it is again: as anonymous and public sources report in unison, the inhabitants of the Russian halls of power are following the presidential race in the United States with rapt attention, fiercely rooting for their favorite — Donald Trump. Someone will probably describe the feelings that arise when getting acquainted with this open secret with the word «déjà vu». And they will not be entirely right.
Because déjà vu is, in the rough language of encyclopedias, «a psychological effect consisting in the perception of a new situation as having already happened in the past.» And here, so far, there is no novelty. Rather, it is some kind of Groundhog Day: so far, everything coincides exactly with what happened eight years ago, in 2016. And if our theory about the time loop is correct, then soon everything else will coincide. Well, or at least a lot: after all, even the most correct theories tend to diverge somewhat from practice.
In short, in order to meet the future fully armed, it is useful to remember the past: how the Russian establishment reacted to Trump's previous rise to power, what kind of guy he was (as president) and what all this resulted in. Let's start with an official document — the transcript of the State Duma session held on November 9, 2016. From some of its selected places. So:
Thank you. Please, Vyacheslav Alekseevich Nikonov, in charge
, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Education and Science, UNITED RUSSIA faction.
Dear friends, dear colleagues! Three minutes ago, Hillary Clinton admitted defeat in the election for President of the United States of America (applause), and a second ago, Donald Trump began his speech as the elected President of the United States of America, and I congratulate you all on this! (Applause.)
leader of the LDPR faction.
The event that took place in the United States today is very important for us. And there is no need to say that there will not be a big difference – it is just that not everyone has yet realized that the most independent presidential candidate in the entire two-hundred-and-forty-year history of the United States has come to power.
Donald Trump will definitely change foreign policy, we will ask him – I have already prepared the text of the letter to remove the ambassador: we do not need this ambassador who is here today – he is our enemy!.. And of course, there will be a different policy with NATO, and in the Middle East, and with Ukraine. And this is a wonderful phrase of Donald Trump about Crimea – “we will think about it”… He does not say that, like, no, we will never recognize.
In general, we should all rejoice, and on behalf of the LDPR faction, we congratulated Donald Trump on his well-deserved victory.
Faction «A JUST RUSSIA».
Trump's victory over Clinton gives us hope for an improvement in relations between Russia and America and for a relaxation of tensions in the world.
LDPR faction.
Today is a very important day, including in the context of the State Duma statement under consideration («On the trial of the criminal case on the events of January 13, 1991, considered by the Vilnius District Court of the Republic of Lithuania». — ), — Donald Trump won the presidential election in the United States. I want to believe that he will keep his promise, given during the election campaign, that he will negotiate with Russia. I hope that these agreements will also concern the sphere of influence in the post-Soviet space, including in the former Soviet republics…»
Well, after the plenary session, corks flew into the air of the Duma offices. Trump's victory was perhaps celebrated with the greatest pomp and pathos by the Liberal Democrats: as reported, 132 bottles of champagne were purchased for the «ceremonial meeting of the faction» that took place that day. Since parliamentary journalists were also invited to the banquet, the LDPR leader's toast was saved for history: «For the victory of Donald Trump, for the new domestic policy of the United States, for foreign policy, for the faster improvement of relations between Russia and the United States.» Vladimir Zhirinovsky noted that he considers Trump's election a turning point in Russian-American relations, and expressed his intention to teach the newly elected «to celebrate like this, according to our custom.»
They say that champagne was opened that day not only in the Duma, but also in other, higher and more respectable offices of the «vertical». And although journalists were no longer invited to those banquets, there is no doubt about the veracity of this information.
Another evidence of the euphoria that reigned in those days in the Russian political elite are the statements of the editor-in-chief of the RT TV channel and MIA «Russia Today» Margarita Simonyan on the social network Twitter: «Today I drive like this: in one window there is our flag, in the other an American one. I symbolize peace-friendship-chewing gum. In advance… If Trump recognizes our Crimea, lifts sanctions, comes to an agreement with us on Syria and frees Assange, I will retire. Because the world will be beautiful.»
Well, the extent to which all these hopes were justified is best illustrated by the words of the same Vladimir Zhirinovsky, spoken in April 2017 — six months after Trump was elected and three months after he took office as president: «Trump is breaking his promises. And if he continues to break them, then impeachment (of Trump — ) is inevitable. Then we will drink champagne to impeachment.»
The late founder of the LDPR was famous for his many talents, but perhaps the most important and obvious of them was his ability to express in language, earlier and more accurately than anyone else, what was on the minds of the helmsmen of the ship of state, but what the helmsmen could not or did not want to express publicly. In short, the disappointment with Trump in the corridors and penthouses of power was no less swift and total than his charm. And there really was something to be upset about.
Suffice it to say that it was our «friend» Trump who began supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine. His predecessor, the «Russophobe» Obama, despite pressure from Congress, despite the adoption of a law sanctioning such supplies, never dared to do so — for fear of drawing America into the conflict in Donbass. The «Russophobe» turned out to be not one to be timid. The first batch of weapons received by Kiev in early 2018 included, among other things, FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missile systems and Barrett sniper rifles.
Let us also recall that the Trump administration imposed sanctions against Nord Stream 2, which stopped construction. The sworn enemy Biden reversed his «friend's» decision: upon coming to power, he declared that the construction of the pipeline was «almost complete» and that preventing it would be «counterproductive» from the point of view of American-European relations. However, the «stream», as we know, never started working. And then it was blown up. But that, as they say, is a completely different story.
It is also worth remembering that it was under Trump that the situation on the Syrian front of the Cold War reached its peak. The then occupant of the White House expressed his attitude to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian crisis and Russia's role in it in one phrase: «If Russia had not supported this animal, there would be no problem.»
On the night of April 14, 2018, a coalition of the United States, France and Great Britain launched a series of cruise missile strikes on government facilities in Syria (the reason was the Syrian government's accusations of a chemical attack on the population of the city of Douma). After this, Moscow, through Foreign Minister Lavrov, declared that it intended to «defend the Syrian Arab Republic from the aggression that began on April 14 and which these three countries, as they say, intend to continue.»
Thank God, there were no direct clashes between regular Russian and American forces at that time. But as for a clash between irregular Russian and regular American forces, alas, it did happen. We are talking about the episode known as the «battle near Khasham» (February 7-8, 2018).
The formation, which was on the side of the Syrian government and included fighters from the Wagner PMC, was then subjected to massive air and artillery strikes by the US armed forces, which led to its complete defeat. There is no exact data on how many Wagnerites died then, but the losses were significant in any case. According to some estimates, up to 200 were killed and wounded.
«During the recent military clash, in which Russian military personnel were not involved in any way and standard technical means were not used, there were killed citizens of Russia and the CIS countries, and there were also wounded — several dozen of them,» the Russian Foreign Ministry reported about this incident in a laconic manner.
Well, the icing on this rich cake of Trump's «Russian» policy is the famous «Crimean Declaration» released by the US State Department on July 25, 2018. «Together with our allies, partners, and the international community, the United States rejects Russia's attempted annexation of Crimea and commits to pursuing this policy until Ukraine's territorial integrity is restored,» the document says.
In general, if Trump changed American foreign policy after coming to power, it was not in a direction that was more comfortable for Russia. He is a truly independent and decisive guy (at least compared to his predecessor and successor), but, as we can see, these wonderful qualities have backfired on us so far.
«Cowboy» Trump is once again coming to power, once again making generous promises left and right. One of them is to stop military action in Ukraine within 24 hours. And Russian statesmen and women are once again full of good feelings and hopes, believing for some unknown reason that this time everything will be different.
Well, as it says in the Scriptures, «Blessed are those who believe without seeing.» And it also says, «Do not make yourself an idol.»