MOSCOW, August 5, Natalia Dembinskaya. Moscow and Ankara are close to implementing the project of the largest international gas hub. Istanbul is ready to become a center for selling Russian fuel that Europe will buy. About the ambitious plans of the two countries — in the material .
What kind of project
In October 2022, two weeks after the explosions on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 underwater gas pipelines, Vladimir Putin put forward the idea of moving lost supply volume to the Black Sea region. And he proposed creating a gas hub in Turkey for export to other countries — primarily European. As well as an electronic trading platform, which can become a place for determining the final price of gas.
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Those who are connected to Turkey by a gas pipeline system will have an advantage — Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, notes Pavel Sevostyanov, Acting State Advisor of Russia, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Analysis at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
The conditional model of the hub looks like this: raw materials from Russia enter the country via two main lines of the «Turkish Stream» laid along the bottom of the Black Sea (one line for the domestic market, the other for the European market). The design capacity of each is 15.75 billion cubic meters per year.
In addition, Russian gas is exported to Turkey via Blue Stream, whose capacity is 16 billion cubic meters per year. Thus, the total supply potential is 47.5 billion cubic meters per year.
The project was agreed upon with Botas, a company engaged in crude oil and natural gas pipelines, as well as with the Epias energy exchange.
The idea was met with enthusiasm in Ankara. In July, Turkish Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said that Ankara was close to implementing the hub project and had already created the necessary infrastructure. «We will more than double the capacity of gas storage facilities in Silivri and Tuz Gölü by 2028,» he said.
Where does the gas come from?
The project is beneficial to everyone — Moscow, Ankara, and Brussels. For example, the hub will allow Turkey to increase import volumes from the current 50 to 70-80 billion cubic meters, Bayraktar said earlier, and earn more on transit to the European Union.
Russia will be able to increase supplies via the southern route instead of the traditional western one. Some of the raw materials will go to Europe.
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"The creation of such a hub will help Russia export more gas to Turkey and Europe — pipeline and liquefied. But above all, it will allow maintaining current supply volumes. Fuel is supplied under long-term contracts to Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Northern Macedonia, Romania," said Alexander Amiraghyan, Director of the Center for Economy of Fuel and Energy Sectors at the CSR.
Europe is concerned about the project and continues to insist that Russian gas will never be bought. «It is clear where it comes from. I believe Europe will not buy it,» said Czech Minister of Industry and Trade Jozef Sikela back in late 2022.
However, despite the negative political situation, Europeans will receive gas in «impersonal» form.
“Even if in liquefied form, domestic blue fuel arrives in European countries that are unfriendly to us, no one there will ask questions about its origin — today there are no cheap and reliable methods for determining the country of natural gas production,” points out Leonid Khazanov, an independent industrial expert.
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There is already a gas transportation infrastructure between the EU and Turkey — the Turkish Stream, and this is an important factor. Moreover, “Russian gas” will be supplied to Turkey, and “Turkish” to Europe. Therefore, no opposition to the current European discourse is provided here, notes Pavel Maryshev, a member of the expert council at the Russian Gas Society.
He points to another circumstance: the Turkish gas hub is a convenient replacement for the transit agreement with Ukraine, which expires at the end of the year. This will provide an opportunity to trade indirectly with Europe, without depending on the mood of pro-Ukrainian politicians.
Stabilize the European market
Critics of the project say that some of the fuel may remain unclaimed if Europe does not provide the necessary demand. However, they have already learned their lessons there — the whims of politicians have cost the region hundreds of billions of dollars, and the consequences are still felt. Despite the declared refusal of Russian gas, the EU continues to actively increase its consumption.
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In addition, industry and individual minority countries of the European Union, in need of accessible and reliable supplies, are obviously in favor of creating a large reserve of natural gas «nearby», notes Maryshev.
In such a situation, it is hardly worth worrying about the low demand for a gas hub. In addition, the project can really stabilize the European market, economists believe. Europe is still heavily dependent on imports. And maintaining industrial competitiveness given the high prices for LNG is an extremely difficult task.