«There will be a shortage of beef in the world»
Perhaps not all Russians will notice and appreciate this, but meat consumption per person in Russia this year will be 83 kilograms, a whole 3 kilograms more than in 2023. This is even higher than recommended by the Ministry of Health and higher than the average consumption level in some rich countries.
According to the forecast of the head of the National Meat Association (NMA) Sergey Yushin, next year pork consumption will be equal to poultry consumption. For the reason that «the economic availability of these types of meat has been ensured.»
At the same time, domestic doctors do not advise Russians to lean too much on meat. This recalls the «12 chairs» with a poster in a charitable place for old ladies: «Meat is harmful.»
Yes, doctors recommend that women consume a moderate 36 kilograms per year (50 grams per day), and men 79 kg.
In any case, we have exceeded these standards. Is there any point in moving forward, conquering new frontiers? In the USA and Australia, meat consumption per person is 120 kilograms per year, in Argentina, Mongolia and some other countries — 100 kilograms.
Today, Russian livestock breeders are summing up a kind of anniversary: the 10th anniversary of the food embargo that Russia imposed on countries that imposed economic sanctions on us in 2014.
There is something to sum up for 10 years. If in 2014 meat imports to Russia amounted to about 2 million tons, and exports (exports from the country) were only 135 thousand tons, then in 2023 exports increased to 800 thousand tons, and imports to Russia decreased to 640 thousand tons. «And if you count all types of meat together with offal and live weight, then we supplied 1 million tons worth 2 billion dollars to the world market,» says Sergey Yushin..
According to the association's forecast, in 2024, poultry production will increase to 5.3 million tons (versus 5.27 million in 2023), pork to 4.95 million tons (4.73 million), and beef to 1.67 million against 1.64 million tons last year.
Russia has long since reached the level of self-sufficiency in pork and chicken, and successfully exports some of its products to countries and continents.
What are the prospects for beef production? The prices are sky-high — a normal piece of meat in a store costs 650-700 rubles per kilogram. And steaks (marbled beef) are more than 1,700 rubles.
The problem is that, according to the Ministry of Health's recommendation, Russians should consume more beef than pork. Accordingly, 20 and 18 kg per year. And according to statistics, we eat 13.7 kg of beef and 30 kg of pork.
Will the prices of beef and pork ever be the same as those of pork and chicken?
Today, Russian livestock farmers produce 1.65 million tons of beef per year. According to Sergei Yushin, imports amount to about 300 thousand tons per year. “Mainly for processing, making the final product,” he says. – Part of the supplies from Belarus is sent to retail trade.”
— I don’t think so in the next 10 years. This is the most difficult industry, due to the fact that beef prices in Russia are significantly lower than the world average. Beef production is usually unprofitable.
Enormous funds are needed for its development, and the payback period is 12 years and more
— For me, medical standards are a thing in themselves, I don’t know what they are based on, but I will not dispute them. I will only say that in Russia, compared to the world average, they eat a lot of beef. On average, 14 kilograms per year per person. In the world, 8.7. In Europe, 10 kilograms, in China, 7…
Since Soviet times, we have become accustomed to the fact that beef on the bone, shoulder blade, should cost less than cooked sausage. What nonsense. For a long time, beef was cheaper than pork, which is also nonsense.
All over the world, beef is an elite meat and is not eaten every day. Chicken and pork are consumed by those who can.
— There will be a shortage of beef in the world. We will export the product to other countries, earn currency.
Our country has everything necessary to increase the production of this type of meat. Land, water, pastures that need to be restored. There is just no economic feasibility for the development of the industry. Livestock breeders should work at a profit, not at a loss.
— I have nothing against it, from a scientific point of view, research into new technologies is necessary, even if they lead us to a dead end. But knowledge may emerge that will be needed in the future.
However, in my opinion, these products have no prospects either in Russia or in the world. The hype that we will eat soy meat or cricket burgers is based on nothing. These companies are bankrupt or on the verge. They will not compete with a real natural piece of meat.