Why citizens have suddenly lost interest in housing loans
According to the results of July, the volume of mortgage loans issued was 55% lower than in June, according to Frank RG analysts. In their opinion, the cooling of the market was caused by the end of popular preferential mortgage programs.
Photo by Daria Atamanchuk
In July 2024, banks issued 76.7 thousand mortgage loans to citizens for a total of 348.5 billion rubles. Compared to June, issuances fell by 57% in quantity and 55% in monetary terms. Experts explain this market dynamic by the fact that before the expiration of mortgage programs with state support, there was a great rush for mortgages, so «the volume of issuances in July showed a twofold decrease, which is comparable to the volume of issuances in July 2022.» At the same time, the average size of housing loans in July, on the contrary, increased by 3.3%, to a record value of 4.54 million rubles.
Let us recall that on July 1, one of the most popular preferential lending programs, Mortgage 2020, ended. At the same time, Family Mortgage and IT Mortgage were extended with amendments until 2030. Due to the cancellation of preferential mortgages, according to a survey by Compare, two-thirds of Russians postponed buying a home until better times.
In addition to state programs, the Central Bank's monetary policy also negatively affected issuance. At the July meeting, the regulator raised the key rate for the first time since December 2023 — from 16% to 18%. As a result, banks quickly began to revise their mortgage programs. At the end of July, market rates in the top 20 banks approached 20% per annum. Since August 6, the country's two largest state-owned banks have announced an increase in interest rates on market mortgages. It is obvious that other players will follow the leaders in increasing interest rates for purchasing housing on the primary and secondary markets.
According to experts, a deep decline is expected in the mortgage market in the second half of the year. The issuance of housing loans in 2024 may decrease by 35-40% compared to the record year of 2023, to 4.8-5 trillion rubles.