Many elderly people will return to the legal labor market
It took less than ten years for our monetary authorities to realize that freezing pension indexation for working pensioners does not lead to budget savings, but to budget losses. Every year, the treasury was short about 190 billion rubles. They realized this and corrected the situation: indexation of payments will resume in February 2025. Why did the government stubbornly ignore such obvious things before?
Now, according to Alexander Safonov, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, everyone will benefit. Additional money for veterans will support consumer demand. This means that production development will receive a certain boost. And the federal treasury and social funds will not be left out in the cold either. Revenues and deductions to the Social Fund from employers will increase. The budget will also become richer — pensioners will deduct 13% income tax from their salaries. As a result, this will give the economy an increase of approximately 190 billion rubles.
Today, there are about 41 million pensioners in Russia. In 2014, the number of working elderly people was about 15 million people. Today, there are less than 8 million. Many, in order not to «slave away» at the factory machine, left in order to have their pension indexed annually. And a certain part of them (there are no exact statistics, but, obviously, their name is legion) went to work in the so-called shadow or gray zone. Receiving wages in envelopes and not paying any taxes.
The situation was costing the treasury a pretty penny. “We are talking about millions of people of retirement age, from whose salaries insurance contributions and personal income tax are not paid,” says Alexander Safonov. “But they actively use medical services, although their contributions do not go to compulsory medical insurance.” There is hope that after the indexation of payments, such “staff turnover” will stop — if not completely, then at least partially.
— Why did the authorities refuse to “unfreeze” indexation for working pensioners? After all, both people and the budget suffered losses…
— I believe that the calculations were made based on a short-term scenario, — Safonov reasons. — There was no comprehensive approach to assessing the situation. As they say, we need to save here and now, decisions were made from this position. But long-term risks were not calculated, in particular, the reaction of business and the population, employment in the «gray zone», optimization through the development of self-employment forms were not considered. A simplified calculation model was used.
— In terms of overall consumer demand, this is not so much money as to influence prices. In our country, their dynamics are associated with completely different factors. These are global inflationary processes, the exchange rate of the ruble, and expensive supplies of goods from abroad. This refers to the complication of the order of mutual settlements, the delivery logistics itself. Finally, there is the problem of increasing government spending associated with government orders. If we take into account the level of inflation and the growth of household incomes, we will break even.
— There will be no such direct influence. This category has already adapted to its status, it is very difficult to return it to work. There must be strong motivation. As practice shows, a citizen who has been unemployed for a long time is not particularly eager to live «by the factory whistle». People with low pensions are accustomed to a certain level of expenses. Let it be modest, but sufficient, in their opinion. In addition, they have additional social benefits, and for them, the transition to a new model is often not relevant.
— Definitely. Although it should be borne in mind that it is always profitable for a person to work without paying personal income tax. And such a specialist is convenient for the employer, he can save on the wage fund without paying taxes. And without additional measures in the field of control over compliance with labor relations and incentives for employers, moving to the «white zone» will not work.
— Without comprehensive measures by the government to return employment to the legal sphere, our budget risks receiving additional expenses. Without compensation for the income we are talking about. These are the issues that should be under constant control.