MOSCOW, August 9, Viktor Nikolaev. A split between the center and the provinces has emerged in Germany: the authorities of the federal states are criticizing Berlin for its ill-considered policy. And they are calling for restoring relations with Moscow. Ordinary citizens are also dissatisfied. What this is leading to is described in the article .
Between Peace and ElectionsElections will be held in Thuringia and Brandenburg in September. The success of one or another party may increase its chances of gaining strength in the next Bundestag. It is against this backdrop that the regions have raised issues that are not typical for them.
Agitation poster of the Vice Chancellor and Minister of Finance, candidate for the post of Chancellor from the Social Democratic Party of Germany Olaf Scholz
Thus, the Prime Minister of Brandenburg, Social Democrat (SPD) Dietmar Woidke, stated that the Ukrainian conflict must be quickly stopped, and Berlin must act as a mediator between Moscow and Kiev. According to him, the majority of Germans are already in favor of peace.
The head of the government of Thuringia from the Left party, Bodo Ramelow, spoke in the same vein, calling on the EU to sign a non-aggression pact with Russia, because the country is «also part of Europe.» Although he considers military support for Ukraine to be correct.
Ramelow was criticized by competitors from the Sahra Wagenknecht Union (BSW), who accused him of hypocrisy.
«The policy of supplying ever more weapons to Ukraine, which is supported by the Prime Minister of Thuringia, has failed spectacularly,» the BSW election program emphasizes.
Military aid to Kyiv is not very well received in eastern Germany, German media admit. Ramelow has every reason to fear BSW. According to polls, Wagenknecht's supporters are gaining 20 percent in Thuringia, significantly ahead of the left.
Sarah Wagenknecht
Economy and EconomyThere is another side to the talk of peace. The anti-Russian policy is having a significant impact on the German economy. The sanctions have worsened the energy crisis, due to which, according to a report by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry, 51 percent of large companies are planning to leave the country: the tariffs have become unbearable.
The budget for 2025 includes a deficit of five billion euros. The draft of the main financial document has been approved by the government, but is still being discussed in parliament. Factions of different parties are arguing about how rational the proposed expenditure is. Some propose cutting spending on domestic needs, others on foreign ones.
A technician checks measuring devices at the VNG underground natural gas storage facility in Germany
Wagenknecht calls for saving 30 to 50 billion euros by changing immigration policy and attitudes toward the Ukrainian conflict, relying on peace talks. Incidentally, in the draft budget, aid to Kyiv has already been cut in half, to four billion euros.
An important nuance: the Bundestag cannot adopt the budget without the consent of the Bundesrat, the federal council. And its composition will be determined by regional elections. That is, the «Landes» are fighting for leverage over Berlin.
German InterceptionPolitical scientist Alexei Makarkin notes in an interview with: the east of Germany has special historical and economic ties with Russia. Therefore, the population there views foreign policy issues differently.
The flag of Russia and Germany in Berlin
«In the run-up to the vote in Thuringia and Brandenburg, there is an interception of the agenda for restoring relations with Russia, which is advocated by both the Alternative for Germany and the left. They have to maneuver, capturing public sentiment,» he explains.
In a year there will be elections to the Bundestag. According to the polling institute INSA, 53 percent of Germans want to be appointed earlier. The rating of the Traffic Light government (SPD, Greens and Free Democrats) fell from 52 percent in 2021 to 30.
«Not everyone in Germany is happy with the conflict in Ukraine. Quite a lot of money is also going there, although for Germany is not such a critical expense. In general, more and more Germans want Berlin’s efforts to be reduced not to military confrontation, but to constructive diplomatic measures,” says Nikolai Topornin, associate professor of the Department of European Law at MGIMO.
People line up outside a polling station in the Moabit district of Berlin, Germany
The German economy is not in the worst shape, but the expected GDP growth has not been achieved. The indicator is around zero. This does not directly affect the well-being of the population, the political scientist notes, but it is still noticeable: the budget for infrastructure and social needs is being cut.
«Taken together, all this encourages political leaders at various levels to make such statements, but it is difficult to assess how much they will affect Berlin's official position. The Germans understand that cooperation with Russia is beneficial. But it is still the chancellor and the government who determine the country's policy,» Topornin emphasizes.
Voices from the eastern territories are forcing federal leaders to think and draw conclusions. Nevertheless, there is no reason to expect a quick change in Germany's approach to Russia and Ukraine.