The Volkswagen Group continues to experience investment turmoil caused by the global slowdown in demand for electric vehicles and a crisis in the IT division Cariad, which is developing the next-generation integrated operating system for all brands of the concern. Insiders report significant changes in the release schedule of key Volkswagen models: the technologically flagship electric car Trinity, which according to earlier plans was supposed to enter the market in 2026, will go into production at the end of 2032 at best.
Volkswagen announced the model codenamed Trinity in February 2021: it was then planned that it would be the first to receive the new modular SSP (Scalable Systems Platform) and would become a showcase of the concern's technological achievements. The Trinity model was presented as a future competitor to the Tesla Model 3, that is, it was supposed to be relatively affordable and very widespread. Trinity was planned to be launched on the market in 2026 and equipped with the equipment necessary for the operation of the fourth level autopilot according to the SAE classification. In general, the Trinity project became a prologue to the concept of so-called software-defined cars, which are today designated by the abbreviation SDV (Software Defined Vehicle), which is generally accepted in the Western auto industry.
The SDV format implies that the value of a car is determined mainly by software, not hardware, and with the help of software you can extend the life of hardware and increase its consumer value. At the hardware level, SDV models will be maximally unified and packed to the maximum, and user access to all the functionality of the machine will be regulated through a subscription and/or one-time payments, most of which will be made during operation. The main point of SDV is to produce machines as cheaply as possible through standardization and at the same time be able to make money on them throughout their entire life cycle, right up to disposal. If we put aside the ethical aspects of such a business model, it looks very attractive — it’s no wonder that many large automakers are running around with the idea of SDV today.
In short, the main thing for SDV is software, for which the Volkswagen Group created the IT division Cariad in 2020. By the summer of 2022, it became clear that Cariad was not coping with the tasks set and could not develop an integrated next-generation operating system on time. The crisis at Cariad revealed an insufficiently high level of project management in the group, as a result of which its then CEO Herbert Diess was fired. The group is currently headed by Oliver Blume, who has not yet managed to sort out the accumulated problems at Cariad, to which last year was added the global slowdown in demand for electric vehicles, which called into question the entire long-term development strategy of the Volkswagen Group.
Under Blume's leadership, the life cycle of the first modular electric vehicle platform MEB was extended at Volkswagen, since the SSP, which depended on the new software, had stalled. In turn, VW management decided to outsource software development: models for the Chinese market will use the developments of the Xpeng startup, and global models will receive the system of the American startup Rivian, with which Volkswagen is currently creating a joint venture.
The German newspaper Handelsblatt reported today, citing insiders, that the first carrier of the SSP platform will be the new generation Audi A4, expected in 2028. The first Volkswagen model on the SSP platform will be the new generation electric Golf — it will enter the market in 2029 or a little earlier, that is, after the Audi A4. In 2030, the second-generation Volkswagen iD.4 crossover on the SSP platform will appear, and the sports crossover Volkswagen T-Sport on the same platform is planned for 2031. And only at the end of 2032 is the launch of the Trinity model scheduled.
The Volkswagen Group also has an intermediate platform, the PPE (Premium Platform Electric), with an 800-volt electrical architecture, on which the new Porsche Macan, Audi Q6 e-tron and Audi A6 e-tron, which debuted this year, are built. According to insiders, the life cycle of this platform has also been extended, and Volkswagen will try to attach the Rivian electric/electronic architecture to this platform, but it is not a fact that this will work, since Volkswagen will only get access to the American system after the deal with Rivian is closed, and its compatibility with Volkswagen hardware is not guaranteed.
We will add that at the end of July it became known that the life cycle of the current «hydrocarbon» Volkswagen Golf of the eighth generation can be extended until 2035, since the management of the German concern is no longer confident that the electric successor will be able to completely replace it.
We believe that the electric vehicle plans of the Volkswagen concern will be adjusted more than once due to their collision with reality, so we will not be surprised if the Trinity project is canceled altogether as outdated and not corresponding to the changed socio-economic agenda.