MOSCOW, August 14, Nadezhda Sarapina.The tense situation in the Red Sea is forcing the search for alternative sea routes. It is long and expensive to sail around Africa, but it is faster and safer to go through the Arctic. For the first time in three years, coal from Baltic ports was sent to Asia via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The potential and prospects of this transport artery are discussed in the article .
We have to adapt
The turn to the East has seriously complicated the export of energy resources. While Europe remained the main consumer of coal, the transport route was short and convenient. Now, however, delivery is longer and the price of fuel is lower — the stabilization of the gas market has had an effect.
«Sanctions and exorbitant gas prices forced many to switch to coal, and it was quite expensive. They did not develop their own deposits — a deficit arose. But as energy-intensive production facilities closed, coal also became cheaper,» explains Igor Yushkov, an expert at the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University.
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At the same time, the main difficulty in logistics is long-distance transportation. This reduces profitability. «The Kemerovo Region suffered especially — it is far from Asia, the railway is overloaded — the Eastern Polygon is already clogged with coal. We had to rebuild domestic markets and increase production in the Far East,» the economist notes.
Associate Professor of the Department of Logistics at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Alexander Arsky points out: China and the countries of Southeast Asia are the main consumers of coal, at least for the next five years. Thus, according to the PRC Customs Service, in the first half of the year alone, Russian imports reached 43 million tons. This means that logistics must be rebuilt.
Transport problem
Arsky believes that the development of the international transport corridor «North-South» will be of great benefit. This will significantly facilitate communication with Iran, India and other neighboring countries. However, the capacity of the railway is limited. It is impossible to do without sea transport.
Low coal prices make the route around the Cape of Good Hope less and less profitable, and transporting through the Suez Canal is unsafe.
For example, in June, the Houthis attacked two Greek dry cargo ships Tutor and Transworld Navigator with Russian coal. The first sank along with the cargo from Ust-Luga, the second received minor damage and continued moving.
< br />In such conditions, the Northern Sea Route is becoming increasingly important. The complex Arctic route is the only one that does not cross the waters of unfriendly states. «In addition, it shortens the road from Europe to Asia by 30-40%, and also significantly shortens the transportation time between the western and eastern regions of Russia,» says Dmitry Zavyalov, head of the Department of Entrepreneurship and Logistics at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
Last year, 36.2 million tons of cargo were successfully transported along the NSR — 250 thousand tons above the target, emphasized Alexey Likhachev, head of Rosatom.
A Dangerous Place
During the summer navigation, for the first time since 2021, a batch of coal was sent via the NSR to the Asia-Pacific region (APR) — the bulk carrier Admiral Schmidt left Ust-Luga for China's Caofeidian in mid-July, reports the international pricing agency Argus. The ship is currently in the Barents Sea. Despite the favorable ice conditions, the dry cargo ship may need icebreaker assistance in the future.
Even in the summer season, certain areas of the route are impassable for regular ships due to heavy ice. In addition, the constantly growing cargo flow makes adjustments — broken ice then freezes into stronger ice, warned the director of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) Alexander Makarov at the Arctic — Regions forum.
According to him, despite the melting ice, icebreakers will be indispensable in the next half century.
«The existing nuclear fleet is not enough to work on the route all year round, since some icebreakers are on duty in other areas, for example, the Gulf of Ob,» Zavyalov clarifies.
While transportation along the NSR is incomparably less than via the Red Sea, the expert nevertheless believes that the route is being developed quite quickly. It is expected that by organizing the duty of nuclear-powered icebreakers in the eastern sector and using high-ice-class vessels to pass part of the route without escort, year-round navigation will be possible by 2030.