«Reality turned out to be worse than the most negative forecasts»
Experts studied the new-build market in 16 Russian cities with a population of over one million and found out where the sales volume fell the most in July. All apartments and flats in residential complexes of all classes were taken into account. The decline in the number of transactions was recorded in all million-plus cities, and its size ranges from 21 to 72%.
Demand decreased the least in St. Petersburg. In July, compared to June, there were 21% fewer transactions with new buildings: 4126 versus 5224.
In Moscow, 37% fewer transactions were concluded in the second month of summer than in the previous month: 6,836 against 10,877. The facts coincide with the forecasts of most developers, who spoke of a 30-40% drop in demand in the capital in the first month after the end of the preferential mortgage.
In Voronezh, almost half as many transactions were recorded (48%) as in June: 643 against 1,244.
These three cities, one might say, are still staying afloat. In other megacities, the situation is even more deplorable: the number of transactions in new buildings has fallen by more than 50%.
In Omsk, the numbers have decreased by 52%: in June there were 219 transactions, in July — 106.
In Novosibirsk — by 54%: 2,149; 984.
In Ufa – by 55%: 2084; 946.
Yekaterinburg «fell» by 57%: 3735 against 1595 transactions, Kazan — by 58%: 1308 against 550.
Krasnodar and Perm showed a decrease of 62%. In the first city in June there were 4415 transactions, in July — 1669, in the second — 1079 and 405.
In Rostov-on-Don and Volgograd, the drop was 64%. If in June in these cities 2309 and 922 transactions were recorded, respectively, then in July — only 828 and 331.
Nizhny Novgorod «fell» by 65%: 868 and 302; Krasnoyarsk — by 69%: 1370 and 427; Samara — by 70%: 695 and 210.
The maximum decrease in demand for new buildings among cities with a population of over a million was recorded in Chelyabinsk: 72%. In June, there were 775 transactions, in July – 217.
The main reason for such a rapid decrease in demand is obvious: the end of the state program of preferential mortgages with subsidies and changes in the terms of family mortgages. At current rates, which exceed 20% under market programs, housing loans are not available to many.
As the authors of the study, specialists from bnMAP.pro, explained to MK, they used data on the date of registration of contracts in Rosreestr. In fact (that is, when the transaction record is recorded in Rosreestr), the picture will be much worse, but these figures will only be available in a month and a half.
— The market is in a phase when it adapts to the changes that have occurred and expects action from banks and developers. Perhaps they will invent new tools to make buying apartments more affordable for Russians. But for now, the reality has turned out to be worse than the most negative forecasts, experts comment.