Expert Drobiz: «Everything that Russians used to drink abroad, they now drink at home»
Prices for vodka and liquor will rise again. This time, it is not the latest indexation of excise taxes that is to blame, but the increase in the price of alcohol from September 1 by almost 9%. Rosspirtprom has already notified the producers, sending them the corresponding «letters of happiness».
Producers of alcoholic beverages have warned about the upcoming rise in price of «white». Incidentally, they themselves are not happy about the latest price increase — by the way, already the third in the last three months. Back in June of this year, a decaliter of alcohol (10 liters) cost 730 rubles, from August 1 it cost 780, and from September 1 it will cost 850 rubles. In fact, since the beginning of summer, this product has increased in price by 25%.
Market participants suggest looking for the reasons for the price adjustments deep in the economy. At the end of July, the Central Bank raised the key rate to 18% per annum, and bank loans also increased – that’s the first factor. The cost of alcohol is also growing due to the rise in the price of raw materials, goods, and services needed for production.
True, some analysts see in the latest price increase the fact that Rosspirtprom was previously a state organization, and since April of this year it has changed its owner, and now it is not public opinion that is important to it, but profitability and profit.
Of course, alcoholic beverages are not essential goods, the prices of which are closely monitored by the authorities. And here it is easier to manipulate the figures than in the cost of a bottle of milk or a loaf of bread. In the end, you can always hide behind the fight against drunkenness and alcoholism, which is being waged by the Ministry of Health.
But how much will a half-liter bottle cost now? And will the new price affect alcohol consumption?
Director of the Center for Research of Federal and Regional Alcohol Markets (TSIFRA) Valim Drobiz believes that there will be no collapse after September 1. Roughly speaking, we will continue to drink as we have been drinking. “Although,” he adds, “any price increase is unpleasant for the consumer.”
— The great Russian chemist Mendeleyev determined the ideal ratio of alcohol solubility in water. 40% alcohol and 60% water. Accordingly, there are 200 grams of alcohol in 0.5 liters of vodka. Today, before September 1, these 200 grams cost 13 rubles in a half-liter bottle. And from the beginning of autumn, they will cost 17 rubles. A price increase of only 4 rubles. This will not have any effect on vodka consumption in the country.
— Not exactly. The minimum price is raised once a year, so it will remain the same – 299 rubles. But in reality there is no such price, it is not profitable for the producers of the goods. The state, setting the minimum, simply could not cross the psychological threshold of 300 rubles. Now the minimum economically justified price of a bottle is around 320-330 rubles. From September 1 it will rise in price to about 340 rubles.
If the average Russian drinks one bottle a week, then four a month. Therefore, in a month he will overpay only 40-50 rubles. Will such a price increase stop him? Of course not.
— They increased from May 1 and are already included in the final price of the goods at retail. Prices will increase not only for vodka, but also for other liquor products, including low-alcohol drinks with a strength of up to 9 degrees. Everything that contains alcohol.
— By about 4-5% per year from 2021. This applies to the legal alcohol market. There are objective reasons for this. The middle class of Russians has stopped going on vacation abroad, and everything that they used to drink there, they now drink here. Then, domestic tourism is actively developing in the country, and this process also cannot do without alcohol. We must also take into account the general state of stress in which the country has been living for the third year. Finally, due to the increase in income, some low-income families have moved into another league — instead of moonshine and surrogates, they have started drinking legal alcohol.
— I can't say anything about it: there are no statistics. But I suspect that it has hardly decreased.