The price of coffee in the world has reached a 10-year high and continues to rise.
This is already felt in Ukraine: the sellers of the drink have either raised the price of it, or are going to do so. There are several reasons at once: last year's bad weather in Brazil, and the lack of a free merchant fleet due to global New Year's shopping, and the coronavirus pandemic, due to which auditors cannot arrive at the plantations to check the situation with the harvest. The price may still fall: if there are no natural disasters, this year's harvest is predicted to be high. But fresh Arabica beans, the most popular grain, will enter the markets only in July. In general, climate change will significantly affect the production of coffee. According to recent calculations by Swiss scientists, by 2050 the area suitable for growing coffee will be halved. Babel tells why in the near future daily morning coffee may become available only to wealthy people, reports the Chronicle.info.
The main reason why you pay more for your coffee than last year on a few frosty nights last year in July and August in Brazil.Bad weather damaged large coffee plantations of arabica coffee — the most popular coffee bean in the middle price category. “It was the worst frost ever in my professional career. And then the drought started,” says Brazilian agronomist Gustavo Guimerres. In the video, he shows the consequences: young trees had to be uprooted, 4-5-year-old trees cut down at the root, young shoots will begin to bear fruit only in 2024. The big trees will give a harvest this year, but it will be smaller than usual. According to Guimerres, Brazilian plantations will be able to fully recover from the bad weather only in three years.
The global coffee market — and this is about $ 410 billion in 2021 alone — is not guided by the words or videos of local agronomists. Special analytical bureaus usually send their controllers to the plantations, who evaluate both the condition of coffee trees and the future harvest. With the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, these reports have become approximate: controllers do not yet travel around the world, and forecasts are made based on news and indicators from previous years. What will be the real crop of Arabica this year is unknown.
This led to a panic in the market, and now it is saturated with money. The reason for this is also the coronavirus. Several governments, including the United States, have poured billions of dollars into the financial system to spur economic recovery. Commercial institutions were able to invest more actively, including in the coffee bean. Even before the end of 2021, traders sold out 80% of the coffee crop. And if in 2019 the average price of a kilogram of Arabica was $2.88, then in December 2021 it was $5.91.
To reduce the cost of the drink, Robusta grains are added to Arabica, which are about half the price , but more pungent in taste. Its main producer is Vietnam. However, now, due to severe restrictions caused by the coronavirus, the Robusta crop hits the world market late. Even more deliveries of both robusta and arabica coffee have delayed the New Year sales. During the shopping period, retail chains chartered most of the containers available on the maritime transport market. This increased the price of transportation and caused interruptions in the supply of coffee. Which also affected the average price per cup.
The market predicts that the price will fall soon. Coronavirus restrictions are expected to ease, Brazil plans to harvest 61.4 million bags
One bag, world standard, 60 kilograms coffee beans.
coffee — against 52.8 million bags in 2021 and 65.2 million the year before. However, according to biologists, the relief will be temporary. Swiss scientists have published a forecast of changing conditions for growing coffee until 2050. Their brief conclusion: Due to climate change, the area suitable for growing Arabica beans will be halved.
Coffee, especially Arabica, is a whimsical plant. The optimal conditions for growing it are as follows:< /p>
- the average annual temperature must be between +17 °C and +22 °C;
- the average temperature of the coldest month must not exceed +10…+19 °C ;
- The plantations should receive 1,400-1,800 millimeters of precipitation per year;
- the dry season should last from 1 to 4 months a year, but even during the driest month, the average humidity should be between 40% and 70%.
Now the world meets these requirements three zones: South and Central America, the center of Africa and the south of the Far East. This can be seen in more detail on the map compiled by scientists:
By 2050, the situation will change significantly. The researchers took the average data from several maps that assess the condition of the soil, several scenarios of climate change in specific regions, took into account not only the increase in temperature or changes in precipitation, but also changes in soil acidity. The base scenario is depicted on this map:
Wherever coffee is actively grown now, scientists predict conditions will worsen. New areas suitable for plantations will appear: in Argentina, on the south coast USA, in the south and in the center of China. However, as a result, the area optimal for growing coffee will decrease by about half. This can turn coffee as a drink into a luxury wine-level delicacy.
Investors in the coffee business say they understand the problem. “We rely on innovation. Perhaps it will be possible to create a new variety of coffee that would combine the tenderness of Arabica coffee and the endurance of Robusta,” says Neil Shah, Executive Director of the investment company Edison Group. But as businessmen prepare to respond to change, Gustavo Guimerres and other Brazilian agronomists and farmers are considering whether it would be more profitable to plant their land in something else.