Disabled sign at a closed petrol station in Warsaw. Archive photoSt. Petersburg, June 16A global recession or extremely low economic growth in the coming quarters is guaranteed, while a debt crisis is unlikely due to the fact that the current high inflation depreciates the public debt, Anton Tabakh, chief economist at the Expert RA rating agency, told RIA Novosti. «very low growth in the coming quarters is virtually guaranteed. A debt crisis is unlikely precisely because the public debt, although high, is long and at very low rates — high inflation depreciates it, and the level of corporate and bank debt has been declining in recent years,» he commented the question of the likelihood of a global recession and debt crisis on the sidelines of the SPIEF. The Russian economy in 2022 faced unprecedented Western sanctions. Against this background, the financial authorities expect a decline in Russia's GDP at the end of the year. The most «tough» forecast was presented by the Central Bank: in April, the regulator expected that the economy would decline by 8-10%. At the same time, in early June, the Bank of Russia announced that the actual decline in economic activity in the second quarter of 2022 is on a smaller scale than it had forecast, so the Central Bank may revise the forecast in July. The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation expects a decline in Russian GDP this year by 7.8% . The most optimistic forecast was provided by Russian presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin: he believes that the decline in Russia's GDP this year will not exceed 5%. inflation forecast Tabah believes that a global recession could lead to a collapse in prices for Russian exports, which is now the main risk of a worsening situation in the economy. rising prices and a sharp decline in imports and government spending caused by non-economic reasons. At the same time, this will not affect the consumption of citizens too much — GDP is an indicator focused on large companies and the state,» he specified. from 15 to 18 June. RIA Novosti is the information partner of the forum.
