«It is possible that domestic importers are stocking up for future use»
It would seem that as soon as we close one position in import substitution, a second or third crawls out into the world. So in terms of import purchases of confectionery from the EU last year, we unexpectedly set a record. It turns out that they have increased by almost 18% — and this is in conditions when the “border is locked”, we are subject to EU sanctions, and when we buy only the most necessary things from the Old World, which we ourselves do not produce yet. Why all of a sudden, it was in the field of chocolate that we didn’t care about any barriers?
According to Eurostat, the total volume of imports of confectionery products to Russia in 2022, in monetary terms in terms of 617 million euros. This is an absolute record for imports in this product category.
Of the physical volumes, almost 90 thousand tons of chocolate were brought to us (for 514 million euros). At the same time, we purchased almost 60,000 tons of cocoa raw materials, which is 12.5% more than in 2021.
It is noted that chewing and jelly candies were supplied the most among cocoa-free products. Purchases of white chocolate, caramel and fudge rose to a maximum, also historical.
As for the price of the issue, it rose, according to some experts, through the fault of the European Union itself. Indeed, even in the most developed countries of the West, inflation exceeded 10% last year — accordingly, the cost of «sweet» ingredients also grew.
Well, what about our domestic candy lamb? Is there really nothing to sweeten the bitter pill of sanctions without European ones? Experts differ on this point. Some believe that the domestic confectionery market is “close to saturation”. And in order for the domestic confectionery to develop further, to continue to increase its capacity, it is necessary to look for external markets. In principle, they exist: as you know, Russian products are in demand in the countries of Asia, the Middle East, the EAEU and the CIS.
However, some experts are sure that we are still far from the notorious “market saturation”. Nerve cells that do not recover, in Russia, it is customary to drink you know what. Or eat sweets, which, along with alcohol, produce endorphins in the body — it is popularly called the “hormone of happiness”, which gives high spirits. And since there is no end in sight to sanctions and various troubles from the European Union, the Russians will continue to relieve stress with sweets and chocolates. The only difference is that with the continuing decline in household incomes, interest in shopping will shift towards the cheap price segment.
It only remains to be regretted that we are not eating domestic chocolate with concerns related to the introduction of European and other sanctions , but European products.
Analysts of the research company NTech, a member of the Rusprodsoyuz association, see their insignificant (compared to other products) rise in price last year in the increase in the consumption of sweets.
— In addition, in recent years, the range of such products has greatly expanded, a group of products for a healthy diet is actively developing, — analysts report, — In particular, chocolate with a high cocoa content. This also affected the increase in imports of cocoa beans. Due to a poor harvest, Indonesia imposed a ban on the export of palm oil, one of the most important components for most confectionery products. What provoked a rise in price and an increase in the cost of ready-made sweets. However, these problems did not particularly affect our consumer market.
Yes, outwardly the Russian confectionery industry looks quite stable compared to other food segments. In the structure of the production of «confectionery» 50% is occupied by flour products — cakes, eclairs, gingerbread. True, in recent years, the demand for ready-made cakes has fallen in the country due to their high cost, people are switching to homemade cakes. The share of chocolate and chocolate products is 32%.
The question is, should we expect a surge in prices, since we suddenly opened the way for supplies from the European Union? The question is quite appropriate, given the unstable exchange rate of the domestic currency and logistics.
Actually, analysts see no good reason for such an assumption. The last serious rise in prices was recorded back in March-April last year, when the ruble collapsed due to the start of a special operation and many supply chains were torn. But since then, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge: the ruble has grown stronger, and new chains have been built.
Today, according to official reports, more than 70% of the raw materials in the «confectionery» are Russian and Belarusian production, in 2021 there were about 30%. Already only on the delivery of ingredients, we can seriously save. In general, according to reports, we have almost everything, but we can’t do without European supplies.
— In my opinion, there is nothing critical in this situation, says Petr Shelishch, chairman of the Consumer Union of the Russian Federation. — Among confectionery products, import purchases do not occupy very large volumes. And their increase is unlikely to somehow affect our domestic production. Last year there was an increase in world prices for cocoa beans, chocolate, sugar and logistics. It is possible that domestic importers against this background are stocking up for future use. Well, and what is important — the demand for sweets in Russia traditionally does not fall, although we are seeing an increase in retail prices. Why not stock up on raw materials and finished products? After all, some ingredients and food additives in our country, due to climatic conditions, are simply not produced.