Roman Gusarov: “You can suffer a little for the sake of significant benefits”
At the end of March, the information space was stirred up by the frightening forecast of the Alliance of Travel Agencies (ATA) that air tickets will rise in price by May holidays in Five times. Someone thought that behind such a forecast are lobbyists who might benefit from it. Others decided that such high-profile news is an ordinary information canard that can stimulate consumer demand. Meanwhile, only a few weeks remain before the May holidays. Roman Gusarov, editor-in-chief of the Avia.ru portal, told MK what is happening with air ticket prices in popular tourist destinations and how demand has changed.
— No. There are no prerequisites for such a rise in price and there were none. The information was announced, probably in order to spur consumer demand for travel, to cause a stir. Most of the tickets for the May weekend are already sold out. Consumers generally buy tickets in advance rather than at the last moment. Because people understand that if they want to fly somewhere for sea holidays, they will have to resolve the issue in advance. Otherwise, either the trip may fail, or you will have to pay a large amount for tickets. But even in this case, the tariff will be more expensive, for example, twice, but not five times. The last tickets for flights have always been more expensive and those who decide to fly «on the flag» have to pay extra.
— There is no detailed analysis yet. Statistics on tickets sold and prices will be available after the holidays. But, according to my forecast, the dynamics of price growth (in percentage terms) will not differ from the pre-pandemic results. It is incorrect to compare with 2020-2022: there we had either pandemic waves or sanctions. The geography of flights is limited. Flying to other countries is expensive. Such dynamics of passenger traffic in Russia also did not exist before. Now, due to the lack of alternative routes, people have begun to travel more often to the regions of their country. As a result, after the May holidays-2023, we will have a unique dynamic, with which we will draw parallels in the future.
— Previously booked 3-4 months in advance. Now about a month. And it counts as an early booking. The global political situation is so unstable that travel planning has become extremely difficult and risky. For example, just recently there were several unpleasant situations with «friendly» countries when they restricted the flights of our aircraft. You can run into the next restrictions and get on a dysfunctional flight. Another factor of instability is the exchange rate of the ruble. All this together forces consumers to plan trips closer to the point, which greatly worsens the state of the tourism industry, the aviation industry. If earlier, due to early bookings, the industry had working capital (in fact, it was credited at the expense of customers), now this is not the case. Now only the company received the money, immediately gave it to the maintenance of the liner, kerosene or something else.
— I predict that prices will increase by 10-15% on average per year, if no global geopolitical upheavals occur.
— Don't try to pick top flights. Sometimes it’s better to infringe on something, but at the same time save a lot. For example, travelers most often choose morning flights. Why? Because it is convenient — you will have time to fly. Get to the hotel and get settled. But since the demand for this option is high, the prices can be seen accordingly. But if you choose, say, a night flight or an evening flight, you can save a significant amount. The situation is similar with the day of departure. Tickets for a flight on January 1 will be much cheaper than on December 31. The same goes for the May holidays. An airplane is just a mode of transport. You can suffer a little for the sake of significant benefits.