MOSCOW, April 22, Zakhar Andreev.Western countries have made a strategic decision to remove Russia from the international nuclear energy market. Where «Rosatom» can be squeezed out, and where its position will remain unshakable — it was sorted out. — Great Britain, USA, Canada, Japan and France — announced the conclusion of an alliance directed against the Russian nuclear industry.
«The five countries will use the appropriate resources and capabilities of the civilian nuclear industry to undermine Russia's control of supply chains,» the UK government said in a statement. Alexander Uvarov, editor-in-chief of the nuclear power portal AtomInfo.ru. However, in his opinion, it is approximately clear what steps the members of the anti-Russian nuclear alliance will take. «Apparently, the first thing they will aim at is our enriched uranium product (EUP),» he said.
Today, Russia occupies a third of the world market for enriched uranium, about a quarter in the US market, and 15-20 percent in Europe.
«This situation arose in the 1970s. The Soviet Union, and later Russia, had excess separation of the isotopes of uranium-235, as well as -238, and actually subsidized the nuclear industry of Western countries — more precisely, the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),” explains Alexei Anpilogov, director of the Foundation for Historical Research Foundation, an expert in the field of nuclear energy.< br />
This was due to the fact that in the USSR, and then in Russia, gas centrifuges were developed. The US used a different technology — gas diffusion plants. The latter were well suited for the production of nuclear weapons, but turned out to be unprofitable for nuclear energy, as a result they were closed. And the project to create American gas centrifuges, despite spending hundreds of millions of dollars, ended in failure.
It turned out that there is no alternative to gas centrifuges. The main holders of the know-how of this technology were Soviet foreign trade corporations, and then Rosatom.
In Europe, such structures are much less. Only two companies put them on an industrial basis — URENCO (Great Britain, Germany, the Netherlands) and the French semi-state Orano. It is they who can take Rosatom's share in the market of Western countries.
Long, expensive
Members of the new anti-Russian «nuclear alliance» declare that they intend to completely oust Russia from the world market «as soon as possible» to «cut off another way of financing» a special military operation. However, it will definitely not be possible to quickly replace the products of Rosatom, experts say.
“I don’t think that this can be done at the snap of a finger,” says Anpilogov. “For understanding: even in the conditions of a mobilization economy, as in the Soviet Union, the segment of gas centrifuges reached a decent capacity in about 10-15 years. This is high-precision equipment , we need to seriously train specialists, capacities, quality control, and so on and so forth.»
For example, China set the task of creating its own segment of gas centrifuges in the early 2000s. The country bought patents from Russia, then set up pilot production, «stuffed bumps» and launched a normal enrichment industry in 20 years, the expert notes.
“Firstly, it’s expensive. At a minimum, you need to produce new centrifuges for uranium enrichment, build workshops,” Uvarov explains in turn. “Secondly, it takes a long time. any conciliatory activities, including public hearings and discussions with the Greens.
He notes that European nuclear energy companies, although under state control, operate as private traders. This means that they will spend such expenses only if they are guaranteed that they will buy new products.
“For this, it is necessary that the consumers of our product in the West either terminate the contracts with Rosatom, or, having completed, do not re-sign — in fact, renew. Considering all the factors, if they really start working to oust Russia from the market, somewhere by 2028 they will succeed,» the expert suggests.
The products of European companies will then probably increase in price. “In the West, our enriched uranium is not bought because they love us. It’s just cheaper, and in many cases it’s easier to deliver,” says Uvarov. there will be two players left on the market».
«Let's print a piggy bank»
Another possible vulnerability of Russian nuclear scientists is dependence on the supply of raw materials. In terms of uranium mining, Russia is in seventh place in the world with a share of five percent. The leader in this segment is Kazakhstan, where 45 percent of the world's ore is mined.
Astana is pursuing a policy of industry diversification and is developing part of the deposits jointly with other countries, in particular with China and France. Rosatom also has a joint venture with a Kazakh state company. However, there are fears that Russia could lose this important source of raw materials due to sanctions. However, experts believe that this is not worth worrying about.
«If force majeure does happen, let's not forget that we have the richest uranium deposits, for example, Elkonskoye in Yakutia. Now it is not being developed, but there are absolutely huge indicators. In which case we can print this «piggy bank» , Uvarov notes.
In addition, Rosatom is actively developing the reuse of nuclear fuel spent in thermal reactors, which can significantly reduce the need for uranium (in some cases, up to 30 percent).
Not just «gasoline»
A separate topic is the supply of fuel for European nuclear power plants built by the Soviet Union. There are such nuclear power plants in the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Finland. They use two types of reactors. VVER-440 belongs to the first generation; such power units were no longer built in the late 1970s. VVER-1000 are more advanced and protected.
“For VVER-1000 reactors, the American-Japanese company Westinghouse-Toshiba, at the very least, created fuel assemblies (FA), — says Anpilogov. — There were long discussions about how safe, reliable, and economically justified they are. Ukrainian «Energoatom» «finished off» them to a more or less normal state.»
If we compare a reactor with an automobile engine, then fuel for it is something more than gasoline. «You need to screw in the spark plugs and set up the camshaft — in this case, the reactor cooling system, so that these tubes cool evenly and provide engine power,» the expert explains.
Thus, Westinghouse made counterfeit «candles» for Ukrainian NPPs, a counterfeit «gas distribution system» and filled in its «gasoline» with a different «octane number.» As a result, the «engine» somehow started puffing and rumbling. whether the «rings» will burn out and whether the «piston» will bend. Therefore, Rosatom withdrew its guarantee from the reactor,» says Anpilogov.
For VVER-440, most likely, Russian fuel will have to be used. The same Westinghouse tried to make its own — for the Finnish station Loviisa. However, it almost ended in tragedy.
«The shape of the fuel assembly in the section is square on the Western standard, while ours is hexagonal,» the expert points out. «The hexagons fit more tightly, they withstand more difficult working conditions. stumbled, because her TVS were bent, and broken, and twisted.»
The main problem of VVER-440 is its age: the reactors are approaching their operating life limit. It would take at least ten years to create fuel for them, which Westinghouse spent in Ukraine. «But this is simply not economically feasible,» Anpilogov emphasizes. «By the time the fuel has passed the minimum amount of design and test experimental work, the reactor will have to be stopped.» years have no basis — no one managed to do it in such a time frame. Therefore, at least for VVER-440, which operate in Finland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary, the Europeans will have to buy fuel from Russia.