In March, the Executive Committee of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) recommended that federations allow Russians who did not support the SVO to compete in neutral status. In addition, the IOC called for the exclusion of athletes associated with the armed forces or security agencies.
The ban instantly brought down the chances of many to participate in the Olympic Games in Paris, because the vast majority of athletes are assigned to CSKA and Dynamo. However, some federations quite loyally accepted the recommendations. And in March and May, the first «swallows» returned to the international arena. The Russians, after more than a year's absence, competed at three world championships — in judo and boxing (among men and women). Let's evaluate the chances of athletes to qualify for the Games in Paris in these types, as well as in wrestling and taekwondo.
Where will the scales swing?
The International Boxing Association (IBA), headed by Russian Umar Kremlev, was the first to make the bold decision. In October 2022, our athletes were allowed to participate in tournaments with the national flag and anthem. In March, Russian women won one medal of each value at the world championship in India, and in May, at a similar tournament in Uzbekistan, men brought two gold and four bronze medals to the national team.
It would seem that everything is going well, but this is undeniable. The IOC has had complaints against the IBA for several years. In 2019, the organization's membership was suspended, and the Tokyo Games tournament was held by a special commission of the IOC. And in June 2022, the committee stripped the association of its right to qualify for the Olympic Games, approving its structure for selecting participants. The Games will feature 248 athletes who will compete for medals in seven men's and six women's weight categories.
According to the IOC system, one of the selection stages will be continental championships, for example, the III European Games, which will be held in Poland in the summer. The Russians will not be there, and the team has already lost the chance to compete for 44 (22 for men and women) licenses. And the rest of the IOC quotas will be distributed at two qualifying tournaments in the first half of 2024. Athletes with the highest rating will be invited to them, and many Russians, after a long downtime, are at the bottom of the register.
But there is another aspect — the political «mine» under the IBA. In April, the United Kingdom and the United States announced their intention to create an alternative organization in boxing to the IBA — World Boxing. Later, the national federations of Germany, the Netherlands, the Philippines and Sweden joined them. It is clear whose ears stick out from under the foundation of this organization. It is possible that it is to her that the IOC will transfer the rights to conduct selection for the Olympic Games. On the one hand, boxers are representatives of the only sport where you can perform under the Russian flag and with the anthem. On the other hand, it can be a shaky well-being. The Kremlin is still full of optimism and new ideas for the development of Olympic boxing, but are the forces equal?
Adjusting every step
The situation in judo is different, here the selection is based on the amount of credits in the period from June 24, 2022 to June 23, 2024. Last year, the Russians were allowed only to the tournament in Mongolia. And they triumphantly won five gold medals, two silver and two bronze. But then the removal streak began, and only in May of this year did the athletes return to the World Championships again.
The result is Arman Adamyan's gold and Inal Tasoev's silver. Moreover, Tasoev, by decision of the judges, lost to the multiple winner of the Games and World Championships, Frenchman Teddy Riner. But soon the International Judo Federation (IJF) admitted the mistake of the referee. Tasoev's gold, however, was not returned. The 17 best representatives of national federations in 14 weight categories (7+7) will each receive tickets to the Games.
At the moment, the situation in some scales looks quite optimistic. Especially among men — Tasoev in his category is 11th, Adamyan — 14th, Makhmadbek Makhmadbekov — 24th, Iago Abuladze and Mikhail Igolnikov — 34th. In women, the indicators are more modest: Madina Taimazova — 22nd, Kamila Badurova — 35th, Alesya Kuznetsova — 38th, Daria Kurbonmamadova — 41st.
But there are still major competitions ahead, where athletes can improve their positions. Moreover, since there are several representatives of one country above the Russians, taking this into account, Taymazov, for example, is 18th in the rating, Abuladze is 20th, Makhmadbekov is 21st, Igolnikov is 24th.
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In addition, after determining the best 17 in the categories, an additional 100 places will be distributed according to the continental principle, and another 15 by the decision of a special commission.
Judo is translated as «flexible way», and the leadership of the national federation is very balanced policy in relations with the IJF. No drastic steps or hasty statements, respect and strict adherence to the code of the sport. And as a result, all the leading Russians were allowed to participate in the tournament in Qatar. Even when Tasoev was brazenly deprived of gold, the president of the Russian Judo Federation, Sergei Soloveichik, told the agency: «The decisions of the judges are not discussed.»
IJF President Marius Vizer told Inside the Games after the World Championship:
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«I feel the emotions of the return of Russians and Belarusians. I see that they were somehow slightly affected by the whole situation, but their behavior here was exemplary. And I just feel that the whole community welcomed them and completely ignored issues of discrimination. «
There is another important aspect: Vladimir Putin used to do judo, and Vizer respects the Russian leader. And if there is no force majeure, then there are significant chances to win the quotas of the Games. The only task is to play in qualifying tournaments and score as many points as possible.
The main chance is in a year
In taekwondo, selection for the Games is also based on a points system. The Russians are admitted to the World Cup, which will soon be held in Azerbaijan. But there are nuances not in our favor. Firstly, only 72 athletes (36+36) will compete in eight weight categories (4+4) at the Games. Secondly, due to missing major tournaments, the positions of our athletes in the rankings sank sharply. Vladislav Larin, who became the Olympic champion in Tokyo, is 12th, another winner of the gold of the Games, Maxim Khramtsov, is 14th, and vice-champion Tatyana Minina is 15th. In the rest of the weights, there are no Russians in the top 25.Thirdly, the participation of Larin and Khramtsov in the World Championship is by no means guaranteed. The reason for the possible non-admission is belonging to law enforcement agencies, support for the SVO, or something else. But athletes could significantly improve their current results. Fourthly, the qualification ends in December 2023, and only the top five athletes in each weight category (20+20) will be given tickets. Then another 8 (4 + 4) will be allowed according to the results of the Grand Slam series (the chances of Russians to get into the number of participants are extremely small).
Apparently, the main hope for the Russians will be the European qualifying tournament in 2024. It will be attended by athletes from countries that have won less than two quotas of the Games. But licenses will be received only by athletes who have become the first or second. To date, the chances of participating in the Games can hardly be called good. And this is especially disappointing given the fact that, speaking in Tokyo in a truncated line-up (four athletes), the Russians won the medal standings (two gold, one silver, one bronze).
With one blow
The wrestling team traditionally brings many Olympic awards. So it was in Tokyo — won four gold and bronze. In April, Georgy Bryusov, director of the Center for Sports Training of Russian National Teams, announced that the executive committee of the United World Wrestling (UWW) allowed Russian and Belarusian athletes to participate in competitions, subject to the recommendations of the IOC. Moreover, the UWW also noted that they plan to propose to the IOC to soften the admission criteria. there will be no collapse). The first stage is the World Championship (you need to take first-fifth place in your weight in freestyle, Greco-Roman and women's wrestling). The second is the continental tournament — 2024 (quotas will be taken by the top two in each category). The third one is next year's world competition (three strongest in weight have tickets). The main qualifying tournament will be held in September, it will be the World Cup in Serbia.
Given the strength of the Russians, they can take most of the necessary licenses in Belgrade, and get the missing ones in 2024 at other tournaments. Moreover, the leaders received the necessary practice in the Wrestling League of Poddubny.