«It's time to take the initiative»
Artemovsk (Bakhmut) has been liberated. What's next? How can the situation in the special operation zone develop now? MK talked about this with a military analyst, editor of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine Alexei Leonkov.
Following the last meeting with Zelensky, US President Biden said that he now knows how Ukraine will carry out its “counterattack”, but will not tell anyone. Well, perhaps he will share this exclusive with his wife Jill, or son Hunter, and we, journalists, need to draw conclusions with the help of experts about whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine will attack or not, analyzing front-line reports. And they testify that the situation in the contact zone is now developing hardly according to the Washington scenario.
The battalion commander of the Vostok battalion, Alexander Khodakovsky, said that the prolonged confrontation for eight months in Bakhmut allowed the Russian troops to regroup and reverse the unfavorable situation for them in the Kharkov and Kherson regions, and our assault detachments, «breaking the backbone» of the enemy in Artemovsk, gave the Russian troops precious time.
As you know, an offensive is usually preceded by powerful strikes against enemy military depots and command and control centers. There were no such massive strikes from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine intensified the barbaric shelling of villages in the Belgorod region and residential areas of Donetsk.
On the other hand, lately we have been witnessing almost daily strikes by our Aerospace Forces on military facilities in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Another powerful combined strike was delivered last night on the infrastructure and military facilities of the enemy in Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Zaporozhye. The Armed Forces of Ukraine acknowledged that Russian troops were using Kh-101 and Kh-22 cruise missiles, as well as Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Geran-2 drones, and S-300 guided missiles.
In a word, something is clearly wrong with the solitaire around the Ukrainian counteroffensive. We are inflicting massive missile strikes on the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Bakhmut has fallen, it seems that there are reshuffles in the Ukrainian command, possibly related to the «disappearance» of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny.
Will the Ukrainian leadership decide on a «counterattack» under all these conditions? and can our powerful missile strikes be considered preparation for a possible transition of Russian troops from defense to offensive?
— For comparison, let's turn to the experience of the Great Patriotic War, — says Alexei Leonkov. — Let's remember the battle for Rzhev in the winter of 1941-1942 — heavy battles, when large groups fought head-on. In Bakhmut, the scale was, of course, smaller, but the analogy is clearly visible.
Both in the battle for Rzhev and in the battle for Artyomovsk, the enemy side attracted a large number of forces and means. They did not save on manpower at all. Many people estimate the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine there at more than 50 thousand people, if not more.
— Ukraine has “achieved” the fact that it has depleted its reserves. We hit these reserves very well, especially those intended for their «counterattack». Now weapons and ammunition are again being urgently brought to Ukraine from warehouses not only of NATO countries, but also directly from US warehouses located in Europe. The help of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is urgently needed, otherwise they will have nothing to shoot with.
And during this time, on the line of contact, we perfected what we could not do under conditions of partial mobilization in training centers. We had a combat run-in of personnel, in many areas the units were changed on a rotational basis. As a result, the mobilized increased their class to such a level that they practically ceased to differ from those who have been fighting for a long time.
Plus, the volunteer movement has grown stronger, which allows recruiting cadres who want to get even with the enemy. It grows day by day.
Well, in addition to this, our military-industrial complex has reached the planned, or rather, even over-planned, deliveries of military products to the front line. The special government commission, headed by Mishustin, has done a great job during this time, and it is now ongoing.
— No. Due to the buildup of forces, we are now able to carry out offensive operations in various sectors. I think the time for waiting for their “counterattack” is already over. The summer season is coming, then a short-term autumn, followed by mud again, it is not clear what kind of winter … I believe that the initiative that we took in the sky, working from the air on their targets in the deep rear, should be transferred to the ground. Here, too, it's time to take everything into your own hands.
Of course, after the liberation of Artemovsk, there are still Chasov Yar, Konstantinovka, Slavyansk, Kramatorsk ahead, which have also been turned into fortified areas. Difficult situation in Avdiivka, Maryinka, Ugledar. And this is another fortified area, we also have to take it.
But on the flanks, I think we have already accumulated forces that can be moved forward. Of course, the decision is up to our command. It has more information than we do. I think they will make the right decision. I think this will be the solution that everyone has been waiting for a long time.