«It is impossible to satisfy the shortage of personnel with money alone»
One of the most important macroeconomic indicators — the unemployment rate — is now at a record low in Russia. But does this mean that all able-bodied citizens are employed, and companies do not experience a shortage of qualified specialists? Not at all. There are enough problems in the labor market that affect the general state of the economy and the daily life of each of us. Which industries are experiencing a shortage of staff? What are the consequences of the outflow of employees abroad? What professions are in demand today to the greatest extent, and which ones are in minimum demand? We discussed these and other issues at the MK press center with invited experts from the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation — Professor of the Department of Human Resources and Psychology Alexander Safonov and Director of the Institute for Socio-Economic Research Alexei Zubts.
Unemployment began to fall in our country for a long time. In 2008, when the crisis broke out, the unemployment rate rose almost to the levels of the mid-90s. But then it dropped very quickly. The second peak came in 2015, the third in 2020, when almost 2.8 million people were registered on the labor exchange, and the total unemployment was 4.75 million. And then we entered a period of decline in the total labor force: from 2017 th to 2023, it decreased by 1.2 million people. Several factors affected this, in particular, high mortality during the covid period. According to the results of the first quarter of this year, registered unemployment in Russia decreased to 534 thousand people.
But at the same time there are a number of problems associated with the efficiency of the use of labor. Citizens who worked part-time at the initiative of the employer turned out to be about 80 thousand in the first quarter. And those who were idle by agreement of the parties (we are talking about administrative leave) — more than a million. Downtime for other reasons — another 350 thousand. Thus, approximately 1.4 million people are persons who work either part-time or are periodically on administrative leave. This is a fairly large reserve of the labor market and, to a certain extent, hidden unemployment. The existing nature of the relationship between the employee and the employer leads to a very high turnover of staff.
The labor shortage affects several things. First, the nature of age discrimination — ageism — is changing dramatically. Starting in 2010, the point of ageism was 40+ years: out of a hundred resumes posted on recruiting sites, a response came to a maximum of one. Now everything is different. Employers consider a significantly larger number of resumes. And the point of ageism (when there are doubts about the candidacy) has moved to the zone of 55 years and above. That is, the attitude towards older workers has changed for the better. The second aspect is the growth of wages in those sectors of the economy that are experiencing a shortage of personnel. If in 2019-2020 the average salary in construction was about 40 thousand, now it starts somewhere around 60 thousand. The same is happening in sectors where skilled labor is used: there the price tag is shifting from 45 thousand to 70 thousand.
Today, the most in demand are representatives of skilled working professions — people who can be put to the machine in production. The lower command personnel are also in great demand. For example, a foreman at a construction site, who can be entrusted with some front of work, allocate several people to him, and he is guaranteed to give a result.
And there is a shortage of personnel almost everywhere: there are not enough cleaners, couriers, especially in large cities. Drivers, welders, locksmiths are in high demand. Our average unemployment is now low — 3.5%, this has never happened in post-Soviet times. Another important feature: despite the shortage of people at enterprises, in general, employers in the economy are not yet striving to increase wages. In real terms, it is growing at only a few percent a year.
The point is this. If you offer big money in the market, it does not mean that you will find people. In this way, it is impossible to satisfy the shortage of personnel: the number of workers that are currently required is limited by definition. And it is impossible to get these specialists by the wave of a wand (opening the wallet). The training of a machinist for the production of blades for jet engines takes at least six months, under normal conditions — two years. Plus additional on-the-job training in addition to training. If you spend four times as much money, the training time for specialists will not be reduced by the same amount.
Of course, salaries are growing for certain categories, in particular, for qualified drivers, especially for those who work on expeditions and transport goods. Very well (four times more than in Central Russia) earn people who were attracted to new territories to restore the economy. There is practically nothing left, the medical infrastructure is completely destroyed there. From all over Russia, people are attracted there to the ambulance service, as a result, the number of relevant employees has sharply decreased in the main territory of the Russian Federation. The rest began to receive more.
The total number of those who left did not exceed half a million people, many of them have already returned. In the end, the labor market lost about 100-200 thousand, which is quite a bit on the scale of the economy. In addition, many relocators were unable to find employment abroad and continue to work for Russian employers directly or indirectly via the Internet. Accordingly, these people, to varying degrees, remain within the domestic sphere of employment.
This massive stupidity goes back to the early days of the IT industry, and it was fashionable back then. A four-day working week is justified where there is no clear schedule for visiting the workplace (a person works mainly at home) and where, by definition, labor productivity is high. This schedule is absolutely not suitable for the sectors associated with the maintenance of technological processes, with medicine, with security. If you reduce the work week by one day, you will need 20% more people, and there is no question of any increase in labor productivity. In addition, the duration of the working week can be reduced in different ways, for example, the staff works four days, but not eight, but ten hours a day. And there is a reverse option, when the number of hours also decreases. In both cases, this means savings in office space and rental costs. But under any circumstances, it is too early to talk about some common solution for all: there is no understanding to what extent the four-day period will lead to a real increase in economic potential. All talk about a four-day or, conversely, six-day work week is PR from the evil one today. For example, in military factories that work in three shifts, seven days a week, such issues are resolved by themselves.
The process has been going on for a long time. Any of us constantly uses the entire banking infrastructure through smartphones: applications allow you to create deposits, place free money in some investment products, and make transfers. You do not need to physically come to the bank office to sign a payment order to perform some kind of financial action. There is nothing wrong here, quite the contrary. The same story is with the number of employees in the areas of trade where digitalization is taking place. At the same time, a new category of specialists has emerged who work with these digital products. People walk around, look for the availability of the corresponding QR codes so that the machine can read them, sort the goods, check them for suitability. And all this requires manual labor.
On the one hand, artificial intelligence programs help in creativity. A certain writer “created” 97 novels in a year, which were probably not so bad. However, a few years ago, a Russian bank decided to cut its legal staff, replacing them all with artificial intelligence. And then it turned out that he did not understand the nuances, and the bank lost billions of rubles on legal errors. There is one problem with artificial intelligence: it does not have its own sensors, its own eyes and ears, in order to adequately perceive the world around it. It is intelligence exactly as far as living people put information into it. It poses a threat (in terms of job loss) only to lower-level IT specialists, but it will not replace those who know how to organize complex projects. Plus, robots do not capture shades of meaning, only people are capable of this. Let's say an article about a large company appears somewhere, which artificial intelligence evaluates as negative, and a person will immediately understand that this is more of an advertisement. So people always have a lot of niches for employment even around artificial intelligence.
It is better to look for such a job through a recruitment agency: the sites have the option “work for a while, for the summer for young people, minors”. And in order to fix work experience (at least from the age of 14–15), it is necessary to conclude a contract. Again, it must be understood that minors require parental consent for such activities. And there are certain restrictions on the number of hours allowed by law. Because of this, many companies prefer not to contact minors, and if they do work, then unofficially. In addition, two things must be separated. The first is earnings. And the second is a document that confirms it. If we are talking about a temporary part-time job, it is quite simple to arrange it. But still, we must look to the future: the first job should become part of the total work experience and total capitalization. If a person, for example, wants to engage in further IT, then it is better to focus on this segment from the very beginning, agreeing even to low-skilled, rough work. Let's say you can make coffee for office staff, the main thing is that it will be the office of an IT company.
There are a lot of myths around this industry. Previously, there were all sorts of fantastic estimates: that in a year or two we would need 270,000, 500,000 specialists. In reality, in 2021 the market began to fall. It is very difficult to find a job for IT specialists who maintain software already installed on computers, as well as for those who are responsible for information security. Only specialists in writing programs are really in demand, and there are always few of them. One more circumstance should not be forgotten: Russian employees of Western IT companies, who promoted their software products in our country, but left it, remained out of work.
First of all, it is the fuel and energy complex and finances. In addition, we have good pay in tobacco production, in fishing and in the sector of aviation and air transport (these are pilots and ground personnel who service airports). If you want to have a high salary in the future, you need to focus on knowledge-intensive areas. Today, in the field of training artificial intelligence, anyone is required. When I was interested in this topic, I was surprised that philologists are needed. On the one hand, you need to be a good specialist in your field, and on the other hand, a person who is able to generate some kind of content will always find a point of application for his professional skills.
Today, as, indeed, always, doctors. Surgeons, neurosurgeons, oncologists are the elite of the medical community. You need to understand: in any profession there are no such happy examples when a person on the move, having worked “for a week without a year”, began to receive a lot of money. It doesn't happen. You need to go through a considerable professional path, gain the trust of colleagues, a certain amount of knowledge and specific experience — then the salary will grow. Plus, new types of specialties are emerging in the healthcare sector: these are medical physicists who service complex technical devices and decipher diagnostic data.
Another very important area is engineers and designers. The fact is that few people can master purely technical skills. The need for such specialists has been growing since the late 1980s, and everywhere in the world. This should be taken into account by those who want to earn good money and have a stable employment.