The falling rate of the Russian currency is influenced not by the economy, but by the information background
The past week was marked by a sharp weakening of the ruble. It has not happened for a long time that in a matter of days our ruble money lost 6 rubles at once — both in relation to the dollar and to the euro. On the horizon, which is no longer the most distant, looms 90 rubles for an “American” and a steward for a “European”, only the lazy one does not talk about this. That is, we are inexorably approaching the levels of March last year, when a real panic reigned on the currency exchange after the start of the NWO and the subsequent tough sanctions. How will events develop now?
Over the past week, we, like a multiplication table, have already learned the factors that work against the ruble in the foreign exchange market. In particular, this is a decrease in export oil and gas revenues with a simultaneous increase in import purchases. Plus, a huge federal budget deficit due to the fact that spending sharply exceeds revenues… All this is superimposed by a high degree of geopolitical uncertainty, which is also pushing the ruble down.
But that doesn't make it any easier for us. In the wake of the devaluation of the domestic currency, prices in stores crept up, and according to a bad tradition, not only for imports, but also for our own, domestic … It seems that many of us will also have to wait a little with vacations at sea: they are becoming less affordable before our eyes . Moreover, according to official data, the Russians were preparing in unison for near and far wanderings. Thus, sales of small suitcases (for shorts and underwater masks) in May-June grew in Russia by a third, and the average purchase receipt — by 17%. But all this vacation romance can be covered with a copper basin if the ruble continues to do somersaults.
But we will agree that the “good reasons” pulling the ruble to the bottom did not appear a week ago, when our national currency. They keep for many months, even from the beginning of the year. So there is something else here. What exactly?
Financial analyst, candidate of economic sciences Mikhail Belyaev from the beginning of the week tried to explain what is happening with the ruble with general economic messages. After all, there are no deep reasons for such a fall of the national currency against the dollar, which we are seeing today. Then I realized that classical economics has absolutely nothing to do with it, and he told about it in an interview with MK.
— Our economy is in an unstable position today, he says. — A strong information background is superimposed on it, and it does not contribute to stabilization. Everything has come together, and it all together pushes the ruble down. People and investors, who are wary of everything, go to foreign currency, which, as they think, insures their risks.
— Every day our national currency loses 1.3-1.4 rubles against the dollar. Corresponding sentiments are increasingly covering the foreign exchange market. If someone at the beginning of last week was still getting stronger, he thought that it was okay, now he understands that it is time to buy foreign currency. And banks are not lost, they increase rates in exchangers in order to extract maximum profit. It can be assumed that the fall of the ruble will continue this week. Serious economic mechanisms no longer work here, human psychology is operating, close to stock exchange panic.
— I'm afraid that the ruble will break into a steep peak, and exchange currency trading will have to be closed or interrupted. When quotes fall below a certain level and rush demand begins, trading stops. This is a common stock market practice. It is quite possible that it will be in demand in the coming days.
— It seems to me that they will no longer help, the situation has begun to “warm up”. Such interventions should have been carried out earlier. The dollar can greatly overshoot even for 90 rubles, it is difficult to predict the upper ceiling. If on Monday, July 3, the “Russian” loses another 1.5 rubles to the dollar, then exchange trading should be stopped. Sustain a pause, maybe for a day, and then carry out foreign exchange intervention.
— It is difficult to say, it is not known what measures will be taken by the government. If the situation comes to an exchange crash, then in one day the ruble can “shoot” above a hundred. As it was in March 2022. Nothing is impossible here!