Experts expect serious operation by Russian troops
Another transformation has taken place with the great Ukrainian “counteroffensive”. As the American The Washington Post reported with reference to military sources, the third phase of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has already begun, which will certainly give a result.
Photo: Global Look Press
It is worth recalling how a decisive «offensive» gradually turned into a «multi-phase» operation. A big offensive, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine used strategic reserves, began on June 4. The main battles unfolded in the Zaporozhye direction, but they only brought huge losses to the Armed Forces of Ukraine — numerous videos with dozens of German Leopards and American Bradleys burned and blown up by mines were circulated on the Internet.
Failure in the West and in Kiev written off on the «treacherous Russians», who unexpectedly staunchly defend themselves, and on their terrible minefields. After that, the second phase was announced. It started on July 26, but went with the same result as the first one. And now a new adjustment of plans — the third phase has been announced.
Thanks to intentional information stuffing in the Western media, plans for a large Ukrainian offensive were known six months ago. They started writing about it back in January, announcing its start first in April, then in May. NATO did not hide how much equipment the Alliance supplied for two new Ukrainian army corps — the 9th and 10th, formed specifically to break through our defenses in three days, reach the Crimea and the Sea of Azov, taking Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol.
Kyiv received 250 tanks from NATO countries for this offensive, including Leopards, English Challengers, French AMX-10s, as well as about 1,000 armored fighting vehicles of various colors. Howitzers, self-propelled guns, air defense systems, rocket systems were handed over.
With the execution of this plan came bad luck. Although the sources of the American media did not deceive with the main direction of the offensive: the campaign to the Crimea and the Sea of u200bu200bAzov still remains the main goal of the “offensive”. On August 4, the Russian Ministry of Defense spoke about the price the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already paid for achieving this illusory goal. According to him, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have lost 43,000 servicemen since June 4.
The loss of equipment amounted to 4,900 pieces of various weapons: 26 aircraft, 9 helicopters, 1,831 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, including 25 Leopard tanks, 7 French AMX wheeled tanks, 21 American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. 747 guns and mortars were also lost, including 76 American M777 howitzers, as well as 84 self-propelled guns from Poland, the USA, France and Germany.
How can these losses be assessed? Well, here, for example, is the official data of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on the number of armaments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as of January 1, 2022. Then the Armed Forces of Ukraine had 1970 tanks, 3575 armored personnel carriers, 2376 infantry fighting vehicles, 3182 guns, 488 combat aircraft, 102 attack helicopters, 215 thousand military personnel. By the beginning of 2023, almost all of that military equipment had been disposed of.
It turns out that in just two months the Armed Forces of Ukraine lost an entire army in the Zaporozhye fields, which for six months was helped to equip and train three dozen NATO countries. The question is: how long will it take for Ukraine to make up for these losses and can Kiev count on the same assistance from NATO with almost no result on the battlefield.
Assessing the next transformation of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the commander of the Vostok battalion Alexander Khodakovsky in his channel he called it creeping, “which was difficult even to fix — this beginning differed so little from an ordinary burst of activity.”
“The strategy (of the Armed Forces of Ukraine) is now quite linear and is built on the principle of “water wears away a stone,” Alexander Khodakovsky concluded.
In his opinion, the main task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine today is to tie down our forces in different sectors of the front so that we did not have the opportunity to transfer forces to the main direction — southern or Zaporozhye. “For some reason, it seems to me that if the enemy can put us in a critical position in the south, a serious operation will begin somewhere. Or maybe it will start for some reason of its own — we all secretly hope for it, ”concluded the battalion commander.
The Russian General Staff is responsible for realizing these hopes. He knows exactly the direction of our strike. It is possible that it will be that section of the line of contact, which Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently visited. He visited the headquarters of the «Center» grouping and heard a report from the commander of the grouping, Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev. This grouping is successfully operating in the Krasnolimansky direction.
General Mordvichev was appointed commander of the troops of the Central Military District and at the same time commander of the «Center» grouping in the NVO zone in February. The general was sent to Syria several times, during the NMD he led the troops during the assault on Azovstal in Mariupol.
In July, in an interview with Solovyov Live, the general gave the following forecast regarding the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: “They have enough before the end of August, nothing much has been achieved, … by spring, I think it will all be over.
If the general’s forecast is correct, then the multi-phase Ukrainian offensive will soon come to an end.