Western experts have improved their forecasts for the state of the Russian economy. Thus, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects an increase in Russian GDP of 0.8% at the end of the year. Despite the fact that earlier they talked about a drop of 1.5%. The IMF also notes positive dynamics.
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development is more optimistic in its forecasts. They expect a 2.8% increase in GDP. Analysts believe that the structural transformation under the influence of sanctions has borne fruit. Forecasts from international institutions for next year are also optimistic. The OECD expects Russian GDP to grow by 0.9%, and the IMF by 1.3%.
Last year, these structures predicted a protracted recession in Russia. They were sure that sanctions would collapse the country's economy. However, the decline was less than during the pandemic — only 2.1%. The hardest quarter was the first quarter of 2023, due to the delayed effect. But here, too, experts were wrong in their forecasts by almost four times.
It is noted that thanks to the departure of Western companies from the Russian market, high-tech production for domestic needs began to develop in the country. Production volumes of equipment and computers, vehicles, furniture and clothing have increased sharply. However, experts warn that the rise may give way to a decline due to the fact that the budget continues to focus on the extractive industries. The Russian economy needs a new driver, they believe.