Adjusting to rapid changes
After the announcement of the introduction of export duties on a number of product categories from October 1, questions and criticism naturally arose. One argument is that the decision changes the playing field, makes forecasting difficult, and will ultimately discourage investment. And, which we cannot but agree with, in the moment a number of companies will receive less profit than in the absence of duties.
However, our exchange rate is floating. Reflects supply and demand. But the problem is rapid change. Which in the same way change the conditions of the game, make forecasting difficult and, at a certain level, actually completely discourage the desire to invest. They also influence inflation — we are actively involved in global trade and when the ruble weakens, prices rise noticeably.
About a year ago, when the exchange rate was closer to 50 rubles, there were many complaints from exporters. With a high degree of probability, it can be assumed that for most companies, exporting at an exchange rate of 95 and a duty of 7% or even 10% is somewhat more profitable than exporting at an exchange rate of 60 without duties. And the incentives for export itself and investment in its expansion do not disappear. But supply within the country will increase slightly. And will lead to limiting price growth.
Under normal conditions, it would be possible to smooth out the volatility of the exchange rate, which remains floating, and therefore inflation surges even without this instrument. If it weren’t for the attempts to “freeze” and, in fact, steal Russian foreign exchange reserves. So now such opportunities are limited. That is why a flexible mechanism is proposed — taking into account the ruble exchange rate. At the same time, the setup of the mechanism is extremely favorable for exporters. If the ruble strengthens to levels that respected market participants consider fair, then no one will have to pay anything.
At the same time, you need to understand that duties are a widespread instrument of economic policy. For example, we have long had export duties on grain. And for oil. And there is no shortage of investment in these sectors. Of course, any tariff in theory distorts economic incentives. But the government's task is to choose the right balance between the interests of different groups, including consumers and exporting companies.
In similar conditions, many countries often give priority to their citizens. For example, India recently banned the export of rice due to a bad harvest. Because your citizens and their expenses are more important. And some governments prohibit, for example, the sale of cars to certain countries. With the “unanimous” support of exporting companies. So that’s why the government exists, to think, first of all, about the benefits for the whole country. This is the morality of the market.