Armenia’s grievance against Moscow is unjustified, but historically inevitable
Vae victis! (Woe to the vanquished!) — this Latin expression has been known since 390 BC, when the Roman army suffered a crushing defeat from the leader of the Gallic tribe Brenna. But the principle that underlies it remains 100% relevant to this day. The victorious parties in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict — Baku and Ankara — are rejoicing. The losing sides — Armenia and the Armenian community of Nagorno-Karabakh — are grieving and blaming the rest of the world for their troubles. Advisor to the President of the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is going down in history, David Babayan: “The fate of our poor people will go down in history as a shame for the Armenian people and for the entire civilized world.”
The “civilized world” (if it exists, of course, which is far from a fact) will definitely not notice the consequences of what David Babayan said.
Peace is too broad and elastic a concept. Each part of it has its own problems and concerns. And each of these parts is absolutely not ready to take on the burden of other people's sorrows and defeats. But such a part of the world as Russia will definitely be affected by the consequences of the disintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh (correction: it has already been affected).
Fragment from the book “The Last Honest Man” by the famous American political journalist James Risen: “In July 1974, the ruling in Greece, the military junta supported a coup in Cyprus with the aim of removing the island's president and creating a union between Greece and Cyprus.
Turning Cyprus into an all-Greek territory had been a long-standing goal of right-wing Greek ultranationalists, but the move provoked a Turkish invasion of the island. Trying to find a scapegoat, Greek junta leader Dimiotrios Ioannides bitterly blamed the US for failing to stop the Turkish invasion. This led to an increase in Greek hostility towards America.
On August 19, 1974, a crowd of Greeks attacked the US Embassy in the capital of Cyprus, Nicosia, killing Ambassador Roger Davis… After a ceasefire agreement, Cyprus was divided into Greek and Turkish zones. This catastrophic outcome led to the fall of the military junta. But the negative feelings aimed at the United States in Greece have not weakened.”
I am confident that the safety of Russian diplomats and Russian citizens in Armenia will be 100% ensured. But for everyone else, the parallels of what is described above with the current Armenian situation are visible to the naked eye.
Nagorno-Karabakh has never been a Russian political project. This was a purely Armenian national project, for the collapse of which Russia cannot and should not bear any responsibility. But for Armenia this is a very weak (and what is weak — no!) consolation. And no logical arguments — this is only your defeat, for which only you should be held responsible — do not work here and will not work for some, perhaps quite a long time.
Nikol Pashinyan behaves according to the model of Dimiotrios Ionnides. And this is completely understandable. If he cannot blame the collapse of the main Armenian national project of recent decades on “others” in the form of Russia, then there is only one potential accused — himself. Therefore, the Prime Minister of Armenia is now in every possible way promoting the anti-Russian wave and the thesis that the “allies” (read, Moscow) rudely abandoned Yerevan and now it will look for new friends.
Anti-Russian countries eager to catch a fish in troubled waters are happy to join this game. The head of the American government agency for international development, Samantha Power: “Landed in Yerevan. At this important moment for the country and region, I am here to reaffirm the United States' strong support and partnership with Armenia and to speak directly with those affected by the humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh.»
Paris plays rougher, but on a much larger scale. French President Macron: “Russia is Azerbaijan’s accomplice in the Karabakh conflict.” Strong, very strong — even by Macron's standards. Let me remind you that during their last offensive in Karabakh, the Azerbaijani military killed several Russian peacekeepers. This fact alone completely breaks the logic of the French President. But he plays not on logic, but on emotions. And, I must admit, he does it well.
So, we have a victorious Azerbaijan and an Armenia that has suffered a historical defeat and is offended by Russia. The combination of these two factors will inevitably lead to a geopolitical reformatting of the South Caucasus. It is not clear what kind of picture will emerge as a result of this reformatting.
Ilham Aliyev won the war, but will he be able to win peace? Another quote from Advisor to the President of Nagorno-Karabakh David Babayan: “Our people do not want to live as part of Azerbaijan. 99.9% prefer to leave historical lands.”
If this forecast comes true, it will mean another grand victory for official Baku. Typical of these days is the statement of Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn: “Azerbaijan is responsible for guaranteeing and ensuring full respect for the rights and security of the Karabakh Armenians, including their right to live with dignity in their homes.”
But if all Karabakh Armenians If they voluntarily leave for Armenia, then Azerbaijan will not have to bear responsibility for ensuring their rights. This, of course, fully corresponds to the deepest desires of President Aliyev and his entire country.
However, as I have written many times, the appetites of Baku and Ankara are not limited to Karabakh alone. Telegram channel of the famous Russian specialist on the region Sergei Markedonov: “Turkey is ready to provide support in the investigation regarding Azerbaijanis deported from Western Azerbaijan.” The text quoted above is a fragment from the speech of the Turkish Ambassador to Baku, Cahit Bakci (January 2023). Attention! The territories of Armenia are called “Western Azerbaijan” in Baku and Ankara. Of course, there is no need to escalate, but one should see on the horizon various instruments of influence and influence on the opponent.” Agree. It should — and it should. The redivision of the South Caucasus is just beginning.