“Our strikes are not far off”
The latest news from the Zaporozhye direction of the Northern Military District is increasingly convincing: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are going to make a last attempt here to reach Tokmak before the onset of the autumn thaw and cold weather. Military expert, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, Acting State Councilor of the Russian Federation Andrei Klintsevich, in a conversation with MK, told what to expect from the enemy in the near future and what new techniques the Ukrainian Armed Forces will use in this last desperate assault.
< img src="https://static.mk.ru/upload/entities/2023/09/27/16/articles/detailPicture/c8/ab/1f/0a/edd325503a2bb7eb944d7927bf3267f1.jpg" class="article__picture-image" alt =""Our strikes are just around the corner" />
The situation in the Zaporozhye direction is increasingly reminiscent of a bow stretched all the way. Here, any day now, they are expecting a new attempt by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to attack our defense lines. This can also be felt from reports from this site. The day before, there was a wave of news on social networks about the alleged start of a large operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. However, the news turned out to be a “false start.” The fighters on the line of combat contact say that there is relative calm in this area so far.
“Yesterday they simply tore up my personal message and asked me to comment on what happened in the Zaporozhye direction. I say it as it is, you can consider this an official statement. Now there is unprecedented calm at the front, specifically in the Zaporozhye direction, and nothing too bad has happened, everything is fine, the situation is calm,” said the intelligence officer under the call sign “Thirteenth.”
And yet, there is no smoke without fire. Our units in the southern sector are in a state of anticipation of powerful attacks from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to military expert Andrei Klintsevich, this situation arose after an unsuccessful attempt at a counter-offensive by Ukraine.
“The United States is at a crossroads and is wondering what to do next,” he says. — Give Zelensky the command to go on the defensive and distribute all available resources along the entire line of combat contact in order to withstand our attacks? Or, as they say, throw in the last blow the remnants of combat-ready Ukrainian units? In the hope that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to win something, this will become a reason to ask for additional help from the US Congress and European allies.
At the same time, if Zelensky fails, the Americans will be able to blame all the failures on him, accusing him of illiterate actions, while they themselves will wash their hands and limit themselves to unjustified assistance, which they would have to provide for a long time. And, most importantly, they leave time for maneuver — for, let’s say, changing the information agenda, for stopping this failure before voters in the framework of the election campaign that is beginning in America.
— They are not far off. Recently, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that we have about 350 thousand contract soldiers who are constantly training, and this suggests that we are preparing a powerful fist for our counter-offensive.
— In the near future, having regrouped and filled the units of the Marun tactical group with new personnel, they will most likely make a new attempt to attack in the direction of Tokmak. Yes, they pushed the front a little in the area of the settlements of Verbovoye and Rabotino. Another thing is that many believe that we will “draw” units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into it and we will slam this trap. Our headquarters are not asleep, and we have forces and means. Therefore, I think that yes, even before the onset of a powerful thaw, they will try to do this.
— The fact is that due to the properties of chernozem mixed with water, the soil there turns into such a sticky sheet-like mass. It becomes practically impassable for wheeled vehicles, especially for heavy armored vehicles, and very difficult to pass for tracked heavy vehicles. All NATO equipment puts an excessive load on a square centimeter and begins to sink. Therefore, the enemy always withstands his offensive actions along the main roads, so that the equipment, although under fire, works smoothly.
— These will be the same brigades, only reinforced with personnel. The number is still unknown, but we understand that they will not be able to recruit two corps (that’s approximately 70 thousand people), as they did at the beginning of the offensive in June. Therefore, there will, conditionally, be five or six brigades with a total number of up to 30 thousand.
“We won’t see Western equipment in the advancing units; they began to pull it back because they were afraid of losing it.” Indeed, it is now instantly destroyed by crews of anti-tank missile systems and unmanned aerial vehicles. This is our one big goal, which we instantly take out.
— I think that they will attempt a massive artillery attack on our defensive fortifications, on our warehouses, reserves, supply lines supplies. They will attack with long-range weapons — HIMARS rocket systems; perhaps in the near future they will be given ATACAMS missiles in cassette design. Well, and infantry.
They will try to push us through at the expense of heavy losses, as was the case in the First World War, when there were no means of breakthrough — tanks. This is their tactic for the near future. Actually, it was voiced by Budanov. Then he said that even if they had Abrams tanks, they would take care of them and shoot from closed firing positions, essentially like artillery pieces. Because if tanks are thrown forward, they will be instantly destroyed — or blown up by mines, or something will fly into them.
— They can catch us making some mistake. It is always possible to break through or wedge into our defenses — there is no one hundred percent protection from this. Another thing is that for this we must make some kind of catastrophic mistake.
But we have been in a state of hostilities for two years now and our headquarters, command, junior officers — everyone who remained in the field — have acquired invaluable experience. This is not the same army that was in 2022. Therefore, it is no longer possible to catch us making a childish mistake during the first half of the conflict.