MOSCOW, October 4. Dmitry MayorovThe Russian currency is trading on Wednesday without major changes: it slightly gains against the dollar, is stable against the yuan, but loses against the euro, as follows from trading data.
The dollar exchange rate for “tomorrow” settlements at 16.16 Moscow time decreased by 19 kopecks, to 99.42 rubles, the euro added 42 kopecks, to 104.58 rubles, and the yuan lost 1 kopeck, to 13.59 rubles, according to data from the Moscow Exchange.
The trading volume in yuan is 79.6 billion rubles versus 47.4 billion in euros and 81.4 billion in dollars.
At the same time, the dollar decreases against the ruble by 0.1%, the yuan – by 0.05%, the euro grows by 0.4%.
Ruble under slight pressure
The Russian currency changed slightly on Wednesday against the major currencies traded on the Moscow Exchange, consistent with the exchange rate dynamics of the Forex, in which the euro is growing against the dollar.
“The pressure on the ruble continues to be exerted by the imbalance between the demand for foreign currency and its supply. It has not yet been eliminated, despite the likely increase in export production, which should have already occurred thanks to expensive oil. As a result, the influx of foreign currency into the domestic market may increase, however, apparently, it is not yet enough to comfortably meet the increased demand for it,” comments Dmitry Babin from BCS World of Investments.
Market players drew attention to reports that the Russian Ministry of Finance will allocate 398.72 billion rubles for the purchase of currency and gold according to the budget rule from October 6 to November 7, 18.12 billion rubles per day. For the previous period, similar figures are 276.16 billion rubles and 13.15 billion, respectively.
However, in order to reduce the volatility of financial markets, the Bank of Russia suspended the transmission of foreign currency purchases to the domestic foreign exchange market from August 10, 2023 until the end of 2023.
The price of Brent crude oil falls by 1.8% to $89.3 per barrel. The dollar index (the exchange rate of the dollar against a basket of currencies of six countries — trading partners of the United States) loses 0.4% to 106.6 points, moving slightly down from the maximum since November 2022.
Forecasts
The factor of a strong dollar (on Forex) and high interest rates in the world will prevail, therefore, the likely targets for the price of Brent in the near future will be in the range of 86-91 dollars per barrel, says Georgy Zaseev from Rosselkhozbank.
“Thus, support from the oil market will be limited and expressed in the continuation of the trend of reducing the “discount” on the oil mixture of Russian exporters in October. The increase in purchases of foreign currency and gold announced today by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation within the framework of the budget rule is unlikely to add strength to the ruble. that in the coming days the dollar will trade in the range of 98.9-100.5 rubles, but if the news background worsens, we allow the ruble exchange rate to decline to the level of 100.5-101.7 rubles. Short-term forecast for the yuan — 13.2-13 .65 rubles,” he adds.
In the current conditions, the risks of a re-growth of the rate above 100 rubles per dollar will remain at least until next week, when a number of transactions with the yuan will resume after the long weekend in China, believes Viktor Grigoriev from Bank St. Petersburg.