Washington may not care about Kyiv
Something historical eras have begun to change very often recently. Since the start of the SVO in February 2022, the world has changed beyond recognition. As a result of the events that began to occur in October in the Middle East, the world may also change beyond recognition — and in a very unfavorable way for the West. Western capitals understand this very clearly, but they cannot do anything to break the negative scenario.
Israel cannot help but launch a large-scale ground operation in Gaza, and the United States cannot help but support it. A close alliance with Israel is the cornerstone of American foreign policy, its foundation. But this course dooms the main country of the Western world to conflict with Arab and Muslim states in general.
The exact intensity of this conflict is not yet clear. But the likelihood of a tough scenario is growing every day. In essence, the West found itself in a gigantic trap, and whether it can get out of it will most directly and directly affect the course of the Ukrainian crisis.
Republican leader in the US Senate Mitch McConnell assessed the current geopolitical moment in an interview with Fox news: “We are dealing with an axis of evil — China, Russia and Iran. This is an immediate threat to the United States… You can't pick out one part and say we're only going to deal with this. It's all connected.»
Exactly “can’t pick out just one part”? At this point, perhaps still yes. As follows from Biden’s budget requests, Washington believes that it is quite capable of actively acting on three geopolitical fronts at the same time: cornering China, continuing to supply and arm official Kyiv, and “lending a shoulder” to Israel. But the situation in the world will definitely not be static. It is likely that in the coming months (or even weeks) the situation will be completely different.
Israel has set itself the task of clearing the Gaza Strip. From a purely military point of view, this task is quite likely solvable. But the same cannot be said about the political side of the issue.
There is a colossal military asymmetry between the two adversaries, Hamas and Israel. On the scale of the Middle East, Israel is a military superpower of the 21st century, armed to the teeth with the most modern weapons. Hamas is an insurgent movement from the twentieth century. But the weakness of the Palestinians is at the same time their strength.
Let us remember Afghanistan, in which the Taliban movement, which denies modernity (and is still banned and recognized as terrorist in Russia), rubbed the Americans the wrong way. But in Afghanistan, the Americans had a place to retreat. In order for the United States to withdraw from a conflict in which it could not win, it was sufficient to make one single decision to withdraw troops.
In the Middle East, things are completely different. And Israel has nowhere to retreat. And the Palestinians have nowhere to go. What to do with the civilian population of the sector — Israel does not and cannot have an answer to this question. No, in theory everything is clear: separate Hamas militants from “civilians.” Destroy the first, leave the second alone. But some theories are completely impossible to apply in practice.
Hatred of Israel is universal in the Gaza Strip. The problem is fundamentally unsolvable and will be reproduced at every new turn. If Israel limits itself to what, from its point of view, are “half measures,” Hamas will deal it a new blow after some time. And if Tel Aviv tries to act truly radically in the Gaza Strip (this dry euphemism hides not even a sea, but an ocean of blood), this will provoke an outbreak of anger in the Islamic world.
And anger will fall not only on Israel, but also to the collective West — and, first of all, to the USA.
To support or not to support official Kyiv is a matter of choice for Washington. But America has no choice when it comes to supporting Israel. Different US presidents have had different relationships with Tel Aviv. For some (for example, Obama) they are cooler and more confrontational. For some (for example, Trump) they are warmer and closer. But this does not change the essence.
In a sense, Israel can be called the fifty-first state of the United States. And no matter what this “fifty-first state” does in the Gaza Strip, America will not abandon it to its fate—it will arm and support it. This, of course, will cause a sharply negative reaction from the “Arab street” — the ordinary population of the region. Arab (and not only Arab) regimes allied with the United States will not be able to ignore this reaction. Such ignorance could pose a threat to their survival.
And the Middle East is not just some region of the world. This is an alternative source of energy to Russia, which, during the previous big battle between Israel and the Arab world, used “energy weapons” against the West — cutting off oil supplies.
But then the West had someone to run to. Iran was an ally of the United States. The Brezhnev USSR, of course, was not an American ally, but at the same time it was only too happy to begin supplying its “black gold” to the West in exchange for hard currency. And now, as Senator McConnell said, both Tehran and Moscow are, from the American point of view, elements of the “axis of evil.”
The question is: if the crisis in the Middle East takes its worst course, will America have a lot of extra resources left for Ukraine? Official Kyiv can instantly turn into ballast, which will be helped on a residual basis.
Of course, Washington clearly sees the danger and is desperately looking for ways to “get between the trickles.” And let's be realistic: it cannot be ruled out that these methods will somehow be found. After all, they are looking for them not only in Washington. For all their sympathy for the Palestinian people, the key states of the Arab world are not particularly eager to play within the framework of the scenario conceived by Hamas strategists and sever their relations with the United States and the West.
Let us therefore limit ourselves to a conservative forecast. The Middle East has already experienced great upheaval. But the region faces an even more powerful political earthquake. Nobody knows exactly what it will look like. But any options are realistic, including drawing Iran into a head-on armed conflict with Israel. At the beginning of 2022, Ukraine has become the geopolitical center of the world. At the end of 2023, it risks becoming its geopolitical periphery.