MOSCOW, April 16 Failure of the agreement between Moscow and Kiev as a result of negotiations in 2022, first of all, indicates the West’s reluctance to assume obligations towards Ukraine, writes the American magazine Foreign Affairs.
The article was prepared by an expert from the RAND Corporation analytical center (included in the register of organizations whose activities are recognized as undesirable in the Russian Federation) Samuel Cherap and Sergei Radchenko, a professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.
The authors of the article claim that they analyzed the draft agreements that were exchanged between Moscow and Kyiv in 2022, some details of which were not previously reported. They said they interviewed several participants in the negotiations, as well as officials working in key Western governments at the time.
“The final agreement turned out to be impossible for a number of reasons,” write the authors of the article. At the top of the list they point to the West's reluctance to participate in negotiations, mainly due to the possible obligations imposed on them in relation to Ukraine.
“Kyiv’s Western partners did not want to be drawn into negotiations with Russia, especially those that could create new obligations for them to ensure the security of Ukraine,” the article says.
In addition, the authors point to the deterioration of sentiment in Ukraine after the events in Bucha and Irpen, as well as Vladimir Zelensky’s confidence that with sufficient support from the West, he will be able to win the conflict on the battlefield.
As noted, instead of accepting the Istanbul Agreement and the subsequent diplomatic process, the West increased military assistance to Kyiv and increased pressure on Russia, including through an ever-tightening sanctions regime. Western support also likely strengthened Zelensky's resolve, while a lack of enthusiasm from the West appears to have weakened his interest in diplomacy, the authors add.
According to the article, even if Russia and Ukraine were to overcome their differences, the framework they agreed on in Istanbul would require support from the United States and its allies.
“And these Western powers would have to take political risks by entering into negotiations with Russia and Ukraine, and put their credibility on the line by guaranteeing Ukraine's security. At that time and for the next two years, there was a noticeable lack of willingness in Washington and European capitals to either engage in diplomacy with high stakes, or truly commit to coming to the defense of Ukraine in the future,” the authors add.
In February, in an interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that negotiations with Ukraine in 2022 were almost completed, but after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv, the Ukrainian side “threw away” all agreements, and then Vladimir Zelensky legally prohibited negotiations with Russia — issued such a decree. Russia has never refused negotiations, and Putin spoke about this. In an interview with Russian journalist Pavel Zarubin, he also said that he does not know whether the West wants a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, but if so, then Russia is “ready for dialogue.”
Moscow has repeatedly indicated that it is ready for negotiations, but Kyiv has introduced a ban on them at the legislative level. The West calls on Russia for negotiations, for which Moscow shows readiness, but at the same time the West ignores Kyiv’s constant refusals to engage in dialogue. Previously, the Kremlin stated that there are now no prerequisites for the situation in Ukraine to transition to a peaceful direction; the absolute priority for Russia is to achieve the goals of the special operation; at the moment this is only possible through military means. As the Kremlin stated, the situation in Ukraine can move on to a peaceful course, provided that the de facto situation and new realities are taken into account; all Moscow’s demands are well known. Russian President Vladimir Putin said later that if Ukraine wants a negotiation process, then theatrical gestures are not needed, the decree prohibiting negotiations with Russia must be cancelled. According to him, Russia has never been against resolving the conflict in Ukraine through peaceful means, but subject to the security guarantees of the Russian Federation.